เปิด 8 ตัวเลข ‘ตลาดแรงงานไทย’ ส่งสัญญาณน่ากลัว ส่อฉุดเศรษฐกิจ | Morning Wealth 5 พ.ค. 69

Welcome to Morning Well. Today, May 5th, 2026, we're discussing the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, which is now in its third month. This situation is significantly impacting global financial and capital markets. Recent reports indicate that Iran attacked the UAE, and the US, in support of Israel, may retaliate within 24 hours, further escalating Middle East tensions. This has led to a negative market response, with gold and water prices fluctuating. We'll also examine the Thai labor market, which is showing worrying signals. The Starell's team has identified eight key figures reflecting these concerns. Economists warn that if the current government maintains its policies, Thailand could face severe labor market issues, potentially creating a vicious economic and social cycle. The first worrying figure is the surge in unemployment benefit applications. In March, 242,437 insured individuals under Section 33 applied for benefits, a 6.5% increase from the previous month and the third consecutive monthly rise. This number includes those affected by the Middle East conflict. The second figure projects that formal system hiring could reach 45,000 people per month this year if the war ends. However, if the conflict persists, layoffs could increase to 40,000-45,000 per month. The average number of laid-off employees has already risen from 35,000-37,000 per month between 2022-2024 to 44,000 per month in 2023. This is attributed to accumulated problems from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, trade wars, and international tariffs. Third, household income in Thailand has decreased. The average monthly household income in 2023 was 28,308 baht, a 2.5% drop from 29,030 baht in 2023. This decline is linked to US tax measures, competition from Chinese products, fewer new business startups, and factory closures. The actual income from these areas is expected to worsen due to the Middle East war, with income growth unable to recover to pre-COVID levels. As monetary income declines, inflation and the cost of living are rising because of the war. The fifth figure highlights approximately 2.6 million workers (6.5% of the total workforce) at high risk due to the Middle East situation. These workers are in industries like rice farming, wood panel production, chemicals, plastic pellets, and synthetic rubber, all facing increased production costs from rising raw material and transportation expenses. Their jobs are at risk of demotion, reduced working hours, cut overtime pay, or layoffs. Sixth, Thailand is experiencing a loss of workforce, with the number of people outside the labor force increasing to 30 million in 2020 from 29.6 million in 2020. This structural issue contributes to a rising dependency ratio (58.6%), meaning 100 working-age people support 58-59 children and elderly individuals. Seventh, the unemployment rate for new graduates (15-24 years old) remains high at 4% (142,000 unemployed), significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate of 0.7%. Finally, the informal sector now outnumbers the formal sector. In 2023, the informal workforce was 20.9 million (52.4%), compared to 19 million (47.6%) in the formal sector. This indicates a large population facing income insecurity, limited basic welfare, and reduced opportunities for social mobility. Economists recommend short-term government intervention, such as providing funding for raw materials to prevent factory shutdowns. For the medium and long term, the focus should be on increasing efficiency, reducing hidden costs, and upgrading workforce skills. The government's current cost-of-living reduction measures might not be enough; job security through employer assistance, especially for SMEs, is crucial. The impact of high energy costs, job prices, and goods shortages needs urgent assessment. Increased unemployment leads to decreased household purchasing power, impacting business sales, tax revenue, and ultimately, the national economy. Losing social welfare and political credibility are also risks. SCG, a major Thai company, is coping with volatility by implementing a "Daily Warroom" approach to control costs and conserve cash flow. Their Q1 2026 earnings announcement showed strong adjusted cash flow of 14,929 million baht, up 17% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter. This reflects effective cost management and competitiveness despite Middle East conflicts affecting energy and raw material prices. SCG's proactive long-term strategy includes setting up the Daily Warroom for daily decision-making and risk management, especially in raw material sourcing. They are also managing energy costs through logistics efficiency, alternative energy, and EV usage for transportation, leveraging their scattered manufacturing plants. Financial discipline, including restructuring unprofitable businesses, saved over 4.3 billion baht, reducing the net debt-to-equity ratio to 0.5 times and increasing cash flow to 67,137 million baht. SCG plans to enhance competitiveness over the next two years through four pillars: 1. Regional optimization in ASEAN, centralizing manufacturing, and adopting robotics/automation to reduce costs by over 3.3 billion baht annually. 2. Promoting "Green" and high-value-added (HVA) products. 3. Studying a joint venture with PTTGC and SCGC in the olefin and polyfin business to build a comprehensive global base. 4. Venturing into clean energy with SCG Cleiny. Their business groups show interesting developments. Cement and construction products are boosted by domestic and ASEAN markets, and government projects. SCG Green Solution achieved 2,136 million baht profit, with low-carbon cement capturing over 80% of the domestic market. They saved 44 million baht by using alternative energy and introduced EV mining trucks and cement mixer trucks. SCG Smart Living and SCG Distribution & Retail generated 804 million baht profit by expanding value-for-money (SVP) products and HVA products, incorporating Lean Automation and AI. SCG DEC's business made 247 million baht focusing on Regional Optimization. SCG Chemical, despite Middle East raw material challenges, made 1,078 million baht profit by adjusting sourcing and prioritizing domestic customers. The LSP plants in Vietnam and ROC plants in Thailand are temporarily shut down to prepare for the LSPE project's completion in late 2027, expected to save over 6 billion baht annually. SCG Packaging (SCGP) profited 1.56 billion baht from market recovery in Indonesia. SCG City's clean energy business in ASEAN is expanding, with 141 megawatts cumulative generating capacity. SCG maintains a full-year cash flow target of 55 billion baht, despite high uncertainty in Q3 and Q4, particularly regarding the Middle East situation. Their investment budget for this year is 30 billion baht, with 5.5 billion invested so far. Financial discipline emphasizes increasing cash flow, reducing debt, and investing in necessary projects. Moving to the Auto China 2026 exhibition in Beijing, the Chinese automotive industry is rapidly developing, showcasing numerous brands and advanced technology. The exhibition featured 1,450 vehicles, including 181 new models and 71 concept cars, attracting over 290,000 visitors and 1,500 manufacturers. This event solidifies China's position as an innovation hub for future automotive technology. One notable brand was Hongqi ("Red Flag"), under China FAW Group Corporation, a pioneer in Chinese automobile manufacturing since 1953. Hongqi's history includes producing presidential limousines for Mao Zedong and armored vehicles for high-ranking officials, now extending to the Golden Sunflower series for distinguished guests. Metro Group CEO, Bodin Boonvisut, secured distribution rights for Hongqi in Thailand. Metro Group plans to leverage its three generations of experience and a "Zen working philosophy" focusing on intensive after-sales service. Their strategy involves three pillars: 1. Branding: creating a reliable and prestigious image rather than focusing on quick sales. 2. Dealer network management: avoiding inventory stockpiling for dealers to prevent price wars. 3. Community building (CRM): fostering a "Quiet Luxury" customer service style, emphasizing privacy and exclusivity. Metro Group launched the "One Road, One Link" campaign, including a cross-country test drive of the EHS9 electric vehicle from China through Laos to Thailand, covering over 6,000 km in 17 days, arriving in Bangkok on May 12th. In geopolitical news, Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," aiming to send warships to rescue ships stranded in the Persian Gulf from May 4th. This follows reports of an oil tanker being attacked in the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated the US would assist stranded ships and crews as a humanitarian effort for the US, Iran, and the Middle East, ensuring safe passage through the strait. The mission would involve 15,000 US troops, over 100 land and sea aircraft, warships, and drones to restore freedom of navigation. However, the British Maritime Security Code reported an oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, with some crew injured, raising tensions after Trump's announcement. Experts analyze Project Freedom, noting the deployment of significant military forces in the risky single-channel slot. While the US claims no commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks, the situation remains unclear. The recent Iranian attack on the UAE has escalated Middle East tensions, with the UAE threatening retaliation. The UAE Ministry of Defense reported drone and missile attacks from Iran, with their air defense intercepting 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones. Three Indian nationals were injured. The UAE condemned the attack as a senseless act of terrorism targeting civilian infrastructure and imposed a one-week airspace restriction. The market immediately reacted negatively. Oil prices surged: Brent crude to $114 per barrel (up 6%) and West Texas Intermediate to $106 per barrel (up 4%). The US stock market saw declines: Dow Jones dropped 557 points (1.13%), S&P 500 fell 0.41%, while NASDAQ edged up 0.19%. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year US government mortgage rate at 4.43% and the 30-year rate near 5%. Gold prices fell slightly by 2%. The Middle East situation is intensifying, with reports of a potential coordinated US attack on Iran within 24 hours. This would violate the extended ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, US-China trade negotiations, scheduled for May 14-15, are crucial amidst trade challenges, Taiwan issues, and the Middle East conflict. The conflict has already postponed previous meetings and increased US-China tensions. The nine-week conflict impacting energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz makes it difficult for China to secure oil supplies. US pressure on Iran to end the war has led to sanctions on Chinese oil refineries processing Iranian oil, which China has challenged by ordering its domestic companies not to comply. Trump also questioned China's role in assisting Iran militarily, while the US pressures China and other oil-importing countries to help open shipping lanes. The US Finance Minister has urged China to participate in ship escort operations, but China and many US allies have yet to respond. Associate Professor Dr. Somchai Pakkawiwat, an independent scholar, assessed the situation. He noted that while Project Freedom is framed as assistance, clashes have already occurred. Iran is attacking key US and UAE ports, making the Strait of Hormuz route sensitive. Despite a ceasefire agreement, both sides feel they have the upper hand, preventing a resolution. The US aims to block Iran's revenue, while Iran retaliates by targeting alternative oil pipelines used by Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations, potentially impacting another 10 million barrels of oil. This sensitive situation could lead to an oil price surge to $120 per barrel if prolonged. Both Iran's "hawk-like" leadership and Trump's political calculations contribute to the stalemate. Iran believes it controls the global economy through oil pressure, while Trump, facing elections, might risk attacking Iran, despite further oil market disruption. The professor believes a full-scale war (CAS) is unlikely as both sides seek a way out but are overestimating their positions. Short-term breaks in fighting are possible, but negotiations will take time. The global economic impact, according to IMS scenarios, could see global expansion around 2.5-2.7