Ormuz réouvre, les marchés s'enflamment 🔥 Les Archives de L'Architecte EP2

Welcome to the second episode of the architect's archives, recorded on Saturday, April 18, 2026. The episode begins with significant news: the progressive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This follows increasing tensions and blockades between the United States and Iran. The reopening immediately sent a strong signal to the oil market, which saw a considerable drop in prices. The stock market rebounded frenetically, with a sharp V-shaped recovery, particularly for the S&P 500. It's crucial to remember that 20% of global oil transits through Hormuz, making it a key area for household consumption, inflation, and potential energy shocks. Geopolitics remains the primary driver, with global energy markets struggling to fully grasp the implications of recent events and potential future developments. Brent crude, which had been above $110, has now fallen below $80, offering some relief, but the situation remains precarious. Uncertainty persists regarding the stability of agreements and potential escalations in the region. Despite this, Wall Street appears largely unconcerned, showing high volatility in oil, gas, bonds, and currencies, yet playing for de-escalation in the short term. The global macroeconomy is slowing down, and growth is expected to be weakened by the energy shock. However, production is stabilizing, suggesting that the worst-case scenarios might be avoided. For instance, French industrial production in February was only down 0.7 points. The prevailing scenario remains stagflation rather than a deep recession, which would entail market drops of 20-30% as seen historically. Central banks are seemingly trapped, facing renewed inflation due to the energy shock and weakened growth. Their discourse remains cautious and defensive, maintaining restrictive financial conditions. All eyes are on Kevin Harche, the new head of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell. The question is whether he will immediately follow the Trump administration's directives, which could further destabilize markets if it were to happen. The market has finally made a decision in an unstable environment, opting for a de-escalation and stabilization of energy prices. This technical rebound is strong but fragile, and its duration through the summer is uncertain, given the high volatility and V-bottom rebound in the S&P 500. Tactical and temporary allocations are being made in the S&P 500, raising concerns that this might be a temporary boost before the summer, especially following the annual tax declaration period in the US around April 15th. Markets are now watching US macroeconomic data, including inflation, the real impact on energy, and employment, which has shown resilience. Global PMI and activity, the adherence to the Hormuz agreement, and credit spreads on US treasuries and oil are also key indicators. While oil is the main driver, private credit has been a significant topic of discussion. In summary, if oil prices rise above $100 again, there's a significant risk of a more severe shock, acting as a sword of Damocles over 2026. In the crypto market, Bitcoin is attempting a breakout, albeit a timid one, given the S&P 500's V-bottom. Bitcoin is trying to exit its consolidation zone. The long-term structure remains bullish, while the short-to-medium term is more bearish, indicating a cycle digestion. Despite this, institutionalization of the crypto space is observed, with gradual integration into traditional finance. Europe and France are taking an offensive stance, with the government pushing to make Paris a fully regulated DeFi and crypto hub. The Paris Blockchain Week and the upcoming arrival of Mika in July 2026 are highlighted. A major trend is emerging towards a legitimate and legitimized financial infrastructure, building bridges for remarkable efficiency and effectiveness. The first French DeFi unicorn, Morpho, valued at over a billion dollars or euros, is mentioned as a significant development. The sector has seen a strong rebound in areas like AAVE and Lido. The question arises whether institutions like BlackRock will eventually use institutionalized DeFi protocols like AAVE Pro or Morpho Blue, or if they will develop their own in-house solutions. This represents a full validation of the lending and borrowing model, and Europe's repositioning with emerging unicorn startups is attracting attention, capital, and a more prominent institutional layer. Technical analysis covers various markets. US Oil is around $84, while UK Oil closed at $92.41 after a volatile spike to $86. The VIX remains below 18, under the 20 support level, indicating no immediate market collapse. Treasury yields have retreated, with the 30-year down 1%, but remaining on long-term moving average supports. The US dollar has stabilized at $98.22 after a spike to $97.63. This stabilization impacts those converting assets between dollars and euros, as a stronger euro can make Bitcoin gains in dollars feel less significant. The S&P 500, specifically the BNP Paris Easy SNP, closed around €30.54. The WPEA world fund has seen significant gains, up €6.40 from €5.87 just three weeks ago, representing a 9% increase. For the S&P, a rebound of 13% from the extreme low has been observed in three weeks, highlighting the importance of staying exposed to the market to capture such significant moves. Missing these short, powerful rallies can severely impact annual performance. The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 26,672, in price discovery. The Eurostoxx is at 62,659, with Europe lagging behind. The CAC 40 is at 8,425, close to its ATH, and the German DAX is at 24,702, also near its ATH. The Russell 2000 (US Small Cap 2000 index) is also in price discovery, which theoretically should benefit altcoins, but the crypto sector still seems to be under scrutiny or ignored. Gold is at 4,830, and Silver is around $80-81, up 3%. The crypto total market cap is at 2,580, nearing the 20-week moving average. A breakout could push it between 2,900 and 3,000, with the 50-week moving average at 3,200. Oscillators suggest a potential breakout. Stablecoin distribution has returned to a support level at the 20-week moving average around 0.1, with the 200-week moving average at 0.09. Bitcoin dominance is nearly 60%, still trending upwards, at 77,150 near the 20-week moving average. A breakthrough could lead to 83,000-88,000, with the 50-week moving average at 96,000-97,000, just below the psychological $100,000 mark. Ethereum is at $2,400, a key zone where the 200-week and 20-week moving averages intersect. A successful breakout could lead to $2,800, with higher moving averages at $2,958 and $3,093. A full reversal for Ethereum could occur between $3,200 and $3,450. US crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and HIVE are highly volatile, up 12% and 15% respectively. MicroStrategy is at $166, with a true breakout expected at $185, potentially reaching $235-$260, where the 100-week and 50-week moving averages converge. Coinbase is battling the 20-week moving average around $206, potentially forming a double bottom. Netflix dropped after hitting the 50-week moving average at $108-109, now at $97, but might be forming a higher micro-range between two moving averages. Robinhood is up $4.49, touching the 20-week moving average. Tesla has regained $400, but its price action remains chaotic, influenced by Elon Musk's actions. The question of whether Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, or Google will be the first to reach a $10 trillion valuation based on their AI, robotics, and automotive bets is raised. In French stocks, Hermes, after a spike to €1,531 this week, is back above support, despite significant degradation. Total Energies has retreated from €79-80 to €73, with initial support at April 2024 highs around €70, followed by the 20-week moving average at €65, and further support at €60-61. The 250-week and 100-week moving averages align between €57 and €58, making it a potentially interesting long-term zone for Total. For altcoins, Zcash has shown positive movement for 2-3 weeks after defending the 50-week moving average around $195-200. Pendle and Lido also show rebounds but are very degraded. Hyperliquid remains strong at $45. Decentralized finance, particularly AAVE, is attempting to break out of a descending parallel channel that has lasted since August 2025, currently at $115. However, all major moving averages are above it, representing a significant risk given the current market, yet also carrying the momentum of institutionalization. The recent ETHCC and Paris Blockchain Week events indicate a shift towards institutional players rather than just "crypto bros." In Asia, Nintendo is trying to recover around its 200-week moving average, with significant volume over the past 1-2 months. Japan's Topix fell 1.41% this week, and the 30-year yield dropped 0.42% in tandem with the US. The speaker invites comments on whether this is a genuine de-escalation or a temporary lull, noting that summer markets are often soft, though summer 2025 defied this for crypto. Autumn is anticipated to bring more significant market movements, especially with Trump's midterms in November 2026. The episode concludes with well wishes for the weekend and promises to return with financial news updates.