Les 7 magnifiques, verdict aujourd'hui ?

This financial update for Wednesday, April 29, 2026, begins with a slight 1% increase in US money supply, while the AI sector continues its strong momentum, with Nvidia hitting new highs and many other major tech companies following suit. The market is anticipating earnings reports from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google today. Despite the AI boom, a persistent issue remains with oil prices, as both UK Oil and US Oil are trading above $100 per barrel. This situation is described as a "black hole" absorbing liquidity, even as capital expenditures (Capex) reach unprecedented levels, with companies like Google and Apple investing heavily in their operations. The speaker then delves into a thought experiment, comparing the current Nasdaq chart since 2000 to the post-internet bubble crash. In the early 2000s, the Nasdaq fell by 83.48% from its March 2000 peak. Applying this percentage to the current Nasdaq level of around 27,300 points would bring it down to approximately 4,500-4,600 points, a level not seen since late 2016. This historical comparison highlights the potential for a significant correction, even after a period of strong growth, and raises questions about whether the current AI bubble could face a similar fate. The speaker notes that a drop to this level would represent a return to roughly 10 years prior, a significant but not unfathomable timeframe in the context of long-term charts. The discussion also touches on market sentiment and macroeconomic indicators. While the stock market exhibits euphoria with new highs, global geopolitical instability remains a significant concern, creating a dichotomy between future hopes and present realities. In Europe, the Eurostoxx is experiencing volatility, with no clear outperformance. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 98.7, and long-term interest rates are stabilizing. The World Index (CW8) saw a slight underperformance of 0.32% yesterday, while US small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell, declined by 1.15%. Precious metals are showing stability for now, though gold has seen a roughly 15-16% drop over the past two weeks, now trading below $4600. The speaker observes that gold's recent movements, after a long period of consolidation, resemble a "launchpad" with significant volume, indicating strong central bank and institutional interest. Silver also experienced a significant correction of about 40% from its recent highs around $120-$122. Despite this, institutional targets for gold and silver remain high for the next 12 months, suggesting potential upside if these forecasts are accurate. The cryptocurrency market shows a total market cap of $2550 billion, with Bitcoin around $75,800. The monthly RSI for Bitcoin has held around 42-43, and the MACD is showing a loss of selling momentum, which is now extending to higher timeframes. Altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, are trading around their 50-month moving average, with potential upside towards the 20-month moving average and a resistance zone around $1260 billion. Bitcoin dominance is at 60.5%, and the speaker suggests a potential reversal might be forming, with the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $85,000-$100,000. Ethereum is following Bitcoin's trend, retesting its 50-month moving average and the median of its range around $2800-$2850. A sustained move above $3400 would signal a bullish reversal, with the ultimate target being $5000. Companies in the treasury and related sectors, such as Circle, Coinbase, and Riot, are described as being in a slump. Netflix is struggling to break above its 20-month moving average, trading around $92-$93. Nvidia, despite a slight dip, is attempting to reach new all-time highs, but decreasing volume and high oscillators raise questions about the sustainability of its rally. In French equities, TotalEnergies is experiencing volatility, with potential signs of a top. FDJ saw an 8% drop, attributed to a dividend ex-date, and is showing signs of a potential selling climax. Air Liquide, while fundamentally bullish, is being pushed back from its all-time high. The decentralized finance (DeFi) space is highlighted by Aave's successful effort to reimburse users affected by the Helix DAO hack. This achievement, in a bear market, is seen as significant and raises questions about the systemic fragility of DeFi. The speaker is also monitoring BYD, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, seeing it as a potential challenger to Tesla and Western brands in the electric vehicle and battery market. Finally, an ETF replicating William Egon's fund is discussed. Despite a high fee (1.56%), the fund has historically delivered impressive returns, prompting the speaker to consider a small investment to assess its future performance. The speaker emphasizes that this is not financial advice and highlights the inherent volatility associated with such investments. The segment concludes with a brief mention of a new option for dormant cash in French PEA accounts offering a 2% yield.