Trump : le pari de l’escalade militaire - C dans l’air - 07.03.2026

The current situation in Iran involves intense bombardments, with over 80 fighter jets deployed in recent nights. Donald Trump has announced further strikes, potentially sending a third aircraft carrier to the region and not ruling out ground troops. Despite this, Iranian President Pezeshkian has apologized to Gulf countries for past bombardments, assuring they will not be repeated unless Iran is attacked from those countries. However, missile strikes continue. The return of six American soldiers' coffins, killed in the Middle East, is a moment greatly feared by Donald Trump. Media attention, particularly from liberal and "woke" outlets, has focused on these deaths, reminiscent of the trauma from the Iraq War, which saw 4,000 American casualties. Trump has a complex relationship with the military and how to communicate about fallen soldiers, preferring to highlight the "marvelous operation" he is conducting. The ceremonies for the fallen are meticulously planned and emotionally powerful, reminding the public that this is a significant and potentially prolonged war. Regarding ground troops, General Dominique Trinquand suggests that while large-scale infantry deployments are unlikely due to the sensitivity around casualties, covert operations involving commandos, possibly infiltrated, are probable. There have been reports of specialized helicopters moving equipment and discussions about Iranian Kurds intervening, potentially supported by Israeli special forces for technical guidance in strikes and material support. The strategic objective, particularly for Israel, appears to be regime change, which is seen as essential to resolve the conflict and the Gaza issue. For the Americans, the objective is more ambiguous, with initial talk of regime change followed by a desire for discussion. It is suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convinced Trump during a three-hour meeting that going "all the way" was necessary to change the Middle East and address the Gaza problem. In Tehran, there is widespread uncertainty and fear among the population. Checkpoints are ubiquitous, and security forces are visible everywhere. The recent nights have been described as the worst ever experienced, even surpassing the "Twelve Days War." Iranians fear that even if they endure the current conflict, a member of the existing regime, possibly a close advisor to Ali Khamenei and an architect of the January repression, might still be installed as the next leader. Tehran is described as a "dead city," with many residents fleeing north. Internet access is limited, leaving fixed-line phones and looking out windows as their primary sources of information. The Iranian population has endured severe repression, with at least 30,000 people killed for demanding regime change and the death of Ali Khamenei, who reportedly ordered their killings with military-grade weapons. Despite facing both internal and external war, there is a strong sense of resilience, with people determined to see the conflict through, hoping their suffering will lead to meaningful change. Donald Trump's recent statement about being involved in choosing Ali Khamenei's successor, and not ruling out a religious leader, has caused concern among Iranians, who fear being "betrayed" by the Americans. The US administration's evolving stance, initially stating it would not be like Iraq, not last long, and not involve nation-building, has now shifted towards regime change. A surprising declaration came from the Iranian President, apologizing to neighboring countries for attacks and stating that no further attacks would be conducted unless Iran was attacked from those countries. This came amidst continued strikes, with Israel targeting Iranian government sites and Iran retaliating with missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The conflict has seen the Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally, become a primary target for Israel, leading to 300,000 people fleeing bombardments in Lebanon. An attack on a UN position in Lebanon, deemed unacceptable by Emmanuel Macron, further highlights the escalating regional tensions. Iraq has also been targeted by drone attacks, and Yemeni Houthis, Iranian supporters, are ready to intervene. The war has led to a record 35% increase in oil prices within a week. While Trump announced his intention to continue the war until the regime's "unconditional surrender," the White House spokesperson later nuanced this, stating that surrender would occur when Iran no longer posed a threat to the US and objectives were met, regardless of their recognition of it. In Tel Aviv, residents have experienced short nights due to missile strikes and air alerts. A primary concern is the use of cluster munitions, which release multiple bombs that may not explode immediately, posing a delayed threat. The Israeli army has reiterated safety advice, urging people not to touch debris and to seek bunkers during alerts. Many residents, especially those without shelters, head to subway stations. The psychological impact on children and the general population is a growing concern. The use of cluster munitions, though prohibited by convention, is a tactic that causes fear due to the potential for unexploded ordnance. While Iran's communication about these missiles might be a tactic to instill fear, their actual capacity to launch such attacks effectively is questioned, given a reported 90% reduction in missile launches. Iran's drone capabilities, however, remain a significant concern, with potentially thousands of drones that are difficult to detect over open water, unlike in Ukraine. Ukraine's President Zelensky has offered assistance to counter Iranian drones, highlighting the interconnectedness of these global conflicts. The war has fractured support for Donald Trump in the US, with 54% of Americans disapproving of his handling of the conflict. Even some of his "MAGA" base are expressing disappointment, viewing it as "Israel's war" rather than America's. Rising gas prices, up 9% since the war began, are a major concern for American consumers. Trump's advisors are pressing him to declare victory quickly to avoid political risks from a prolonged conflict. Despite public pressure, Trump remains determined, even contemplating sending ground troops and calling for Iran's surrender. The possibility of a prolonged conflict, a blocked Strait of Hormuz, and further American casualties are significant risks for Trump. The Democrats, previously unified under Trump, are now finding common ground with some MAGA supporters in opposing the war, providing them with a powerful tool of opposition. The Iranian government, isolated, might pursue a "strategy of chaos" to pressure public opinion and force a quicker agreement, even if it doesn't align with Israel's objectives. The risk of dormant Hezbollah cells and potential terrorist attacks in Europe also remains a concern. Historically, US presidents have sought to resolve the "Iranian problem." Trump, fascinated by Reagan and determined to erase past American "humiliations" like the hostage crisis or the Bay of Pigs, sees this as an opportunity to make his mark. The appointment of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense (or "War"), a Fox News personality with military experience, is seen as controversial but also representative of a segment of the American electorate that identifies with a strong, virile military image. The situation in Lebanon, a continuation of Israel's war, is particularly concerning. Lebanese Christians, fearing Hezbollah, refuse to leave their villages, opting to stay in churches despite the dangers. The complexity of the Iranian military structure, with the Revolutionary Guards holding significant power over the regular army, means that decisions to continue the war may not come from the President. The system is designed to be resilient and decentralized, ensuring that the conflict can continue even if leadership is disrupted.