
You will never get a chance like this again‼️
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The speaker begins by celebrating a highly successful day in the public account, which is up $163,000, primarily driven by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). AMD alone contributed $168,000 to the public account's gains, making it a over $1 million position and the fourth best current position in terms of percentage gain, up 277%. This is only surpassed by Meta (524%), ELF (743%), and Palantir (1,723%). The speaker notes an individual in their private group who reported being up over $1.6 million on AMD stock today, highlighting the exceptional performance.
The speaker outlines three core subjects for the video: AMD's future stock direction and updated price/income projections, a large-cap stock opportunity, and a small-cap stock opportunity. They also mention the surging demand for their private group, which offers access to course curriculums, a private Discord chat, and exclusive weekly videos, with over 40 applications already received today.
Before diving into the main topics, the speaker addresses a friend's text comparing the current market to 2021, a period characterized by widespread euphoria and seemingly effortless gains across all asset classes, fueled by stimulus money. The speaker challenges this comparison by presenting data on major market indices and asset classes.
The Dow 30 stocks, for instance, show a significant number of companies still far from their all-time highs. While some are close (e.g., Amazon 3% down, Apple 5% down, Microsoft 8% down), many are considerably lower: Home Depot (11% down), Visa (12% down), Procter & Gamble (13% down), Coca-Cola (14% down), United Health (15.6% down), 3M (18% down), Honeywell (19% down), IBM (21% down), Merck (23% down), McDonald's (24% down), Johnson & Johnson (25% down), Salesforce (30%+ down), Chevron (32% down), Verizon (35% down), Cisco (38% down), Disney (46% down), Boeing (48% down), and Walgreens (87% down). This broad range of performance, with many stocks significantly below their peaks, does not align with the "everything hitting new highs daily" sentiment of 2021.
Furthermore, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are down over 35% from all-time highs, and Ethereum is down over 50%. Gold is down 16%, and silver is down 36.5%. The real estate market, which was booming in 2021, is described as "dead." Money market funds, which were flat in 2021, have been skyrocketing, indicating significant sidelined cash. The speaker concludes that the current market sentiment is far from the speculative, "get rich quick" mentality of 2021. While certain sectors like semiconductors are experiencing euphoria due to booming businesses (e.g., AMD, Micron, SanDisk), the overall market does not reflect a widespread speculative bubble. The speaker notes that people are currently scared, holding cash, and waiting for dips, despite recent market pullbacks.
Moving to AMD, the speaker discusses the stock's recent surge, closing at $421. They recall predicting that once AMD surpassed the average analyst price target of $290, it would quickly move into the $300s, and similarly, after breaching the highest target of $380, it would rapidly enter the $400s. Both predictions materialized.
Now, after earnings, analysts are aggressively raising their price targets, indicating they were "off sides" and are now "chasing." Goldman Sachs upgraded AMD to "buy" with a $450 price target. Morgan Stanley maintained "equal weight" but raised its target to $410, which is already below the current stock price of $421. Stifel maintained "buy" and raised its target to $450 from $320, but the stock could easily surpass this in a day or two. Seaport Global raised to "buy" with a $430 target, also very close to the current price. D.A. Davidson raised its target to $425 from $375, again, easily surpassed. Wedbush maintained "outperform" and raised its target to $450 from $400. Mazuo maintained "outperform" but set a $415 target, below the current price. Rosenblatt maintained "buy" and significantly raised its target to $490 from $300, offering a bit more headroom.
KeyBank maintained "overweight" and dramatically increased its target from $330 to $530, marking the entry into the $500s for analyst projections. Benchmark maintained "buy" and raised its target to $485 from $325. Wells Fargo, a "big dog," set a $550 target from $345. Barclays maintained "overweight" with a $500 target from $300. RBC Capital raised its target to $400 from $325, which is below the current trading price. Canaccord Genuity maintained "overweight" with a $500 target. Finally, Bernstein, known for its historically negative stance on AMD, raised its rating to "outperform" from "market perform" and increased its price target to $525 from $265. The speaker emphasizes the significance of this move from Bernstein, particularly given analyst Stacy Rascon's past negativity towards AMD.
The speaker reiterates that these analysts are "chasing" and that if AMD's momentum continues, the stock could reach the $500s in a couple of weeks, forcing further target revisions. They highlight the volatile nature of semiconductor stocks, noting their ability to climb hundreds of percent in months but also crash 50% in 60 days. Examples include SanDisk (up 3,000% in the past year) and Micron (up 500-600%).
The speaker then shares their updated projections for AMD. Their "bull case" (10% probability) assumes 45% average annual revenue growth from 2027-2030, reaching over $200 billion in revenue and nearly $68 billion in net income by 2030, with net income margins in the low 30s. This scenario would lead to a stock price of $2,000-$2,500, making the current $400s a "steel deal."
Their "base case" (higher probability) assumes 40% average annual revenue growth, reaching over $180 billion in revenue and around $60 billion in net income by 2030, with net income margins in the low 30s. In this scenario, the stock price would be between $1,100 and $1,500. The speaker acknowledges that stock prices can move much faster than these long-term projections, potentially reaching $1,000 or $1,500 within the next year or two, pricing in future growth.
The speaker emphasizes that AMD is in an exciting phase of accelerating revenue growth. The recent quarter saw 38% growth, which was higher than the previous quarter, and the next quarter is expected to show an even higher percentage. This acceleration phase is projected to last at least one to two years before any deceleration begins. The speaker clarifies that "deceleration" means the growth rate becomes less impressive, not necessarily negative.
A fundamental change in AMD's business model is driving this optimism. AMD has more than doubled its long-term total addressable market (TAM) estimate for server CPUs, now expecting the market to grow over 35% annually, reaching more than $120 billion by 2030. This is significantly higher than their previous expectation of 18-20%. The speaker also highlights the immense GPU opportunity, which is expected to "take off like a rocket ship" over the next three to four years.
Crucially, the CPU to GPU ratio is shifting. Traditionally, the industry used one CPU for every four to eight GPUs. However, with increasingly complex inferencing and agentic AI workloads, the ratio is moving towards a 1:1 configuration, meaning high-performance CPUs are needed to coordinate tasks and move data between accelerators. This represents two simultaneous fundamental changes in AMD's business model: heavy investment in GPUs and a surge in CPU demand due to the ratio shift.
The speaker notes that the biggest bulls believe AMD could become the largest company in the world within five years, surpassing Nvidia, potentially reaching a $5 trillion market cap. This is attributed to AMD's strong position in both CPU and GPU markets, its competitive pricing, and its more open-source model compared to Nvidia's "walled garden" approach. If AMD reaches Nvidia's current valuation, its stock price could exceed $3,000 per share. The speaker recalls Nvidia's growth from a $10 billion market cap in mid-2014 to a multi-trillion-dollar company, illustrating the potential for dramatic expansion.
The speaker reflects on AMD's journey, recalling a time nine years ago when AMD stock was $13 a share, after a 470% run, with many believing it was a bubble. Now, with CEO Lisa Su, who was once asked if she spoke English, leading one of the most important companies in the world, AMD has come a long way.
The speaker clarifies that they will consider selling a significant portion of their AMD shares when they detect revenue growth deceleration, which is not expected for at least one to two years. For now, it's "party on."
Next, the speaker discusses a large-cap stock opportunity: Shopify. It is the fourth-best stock in their Patreon portfolio (started in 2023), with a 59.48% gain. Shopify recently reported 34% revenue growth, surpassing Meta's 33% growth. While cost of revenue was up 36% and transaction/loan losses were up 55%, total operating expenses only increased by 21%. This led to an 88% increase in operating income and a 59% increase in net income (excluding equity investments). The speaker considers Shopify's 2-year forward P/E of 31 to be too low for a company growing revenue in the 30s, especially given the current consumer environment. They view Shopify as one of the most underrated large-cap tech stocks.
Finally, the speaker introduces a small-cap opportunity: Revolve (RVLV), an e-commerce company specializing in apparel, with a $1.4 billion market cap and stock trading around $20 per share. Revolve is the eighth-best percentage gainer in the public account. The company has a strong balance sheet with $335 million in cash and cash equivalents, exceeding its total liabilities of $283 million. Despite a weak consumer environment, Revolve reported 16% net sales growth and 17% gross profit growth year-over-year. Net income was up 21%, and EPS was up 25%. While marketing expenses were high, the overall income statement received a B-grade. The speaker believes its forward P/E of 21 is "way too cheap" for a company growing in the mid-teens percentage.