The Founders Who Left Tesla to Rebuild America | a16z

The US faces a significant deficit in critical mineral supply, being approximately 50 years behind, particularly China. This lag stems from a slow pace in designing, building, and scaling new mineral extraction and refining capacity, even after obtaining necessary licenses. While innovation thrives at the grid's edge, the core infrastructure remains largely unchanged from a century ago, leading to fragility and a lack of control. This situation poses a threat to American AI dominance and broader re-industrialization efforts, which are fundamentally physical, energy, mining, refining, and manufacturing projects. The core challenge lies not in algorithms but in "atoms" – the physical materials and infrastructure required for a future AI economy. Mariana Minerals, co-founded by Turner Caldwell, addresses this by being a software-first minerals mining and refining company. They leverage software engineering and machine learning to develop operating systems that accelerate project delivery and increase autonomy in mining and refining. Their "Capital Project OS" manages the entire product lifecycle from process and mine development to engineering, construction, and procurement, incorporating agentic workflow automation. "Plant OS" uses reinforcement learning to control refineries, and "Mine OS" employs reinforcement learning for short-interval autonomous control in mining operations. Crucially, Mariana Minerals engineers, builds, and operates these projects, currently producing high-purity copper in Utah and developing a lithium refinery in Texas, with a goal of ten projects in ten years. Heron Power, founded by Drew Begalino, focuses on accelerating the electricity sector through advanced power electronics. While transistors for computing have seen significant improvements, the grid's underlying systems, largely mechanical and over a century old, have lagged. This has resulted in a fragile, overbuilt grid with limited suppliers, many based overseas. Heron Power is developing solid-state transformers using silicon and software to replace traditional steel, oil, and copper components in power conversion for data centers and large-scale energy installations. This innovation is enabled by advancements in power semiconductors, a field with decades of government, academic, and industry partnership in the US. The speakers emphasize that the US should capitalize on its leading position in technologies like silicon carbide, a key power semiconductor, by manufacturing and applying it domestically. Failing to do so means forfeiting the benefits to other nations. The US is not only behind China but also globally in critical mineral supply chains. While measures like accelerating permitting and improving project finance are helpful, they don't address the fundamental issue of slow capacity ramp-up. Mariana Minerals specifically targets this phase, aiming to build and operate projects significantly faster than current industry norms, even to surpass China's speed. The Tesla model, from which both founders came, offers valuable lessons. Turner Caldwell highlights Tesla's techno-optimism, its belief in innovating archaic systems, its appetite for risk enabling rapid decision-making, and its unwavering commitment to seeing projects through to successful outcomes, even in the face of significant challenges. This contrasts with the minerals industry, where companies often abandon projects after a year of difficulty. Drew Begalino echoes this, pointing to Tesla's ability to build immense facilities like the Megaactory in Texas in just 11 months, driven by alignment and a collective recognition that re-industrialization and critical supply chain development are vital. Building an industrial workforce in the US presents unique challenges and opportunities. Both Mariana Minerals and Heron Power are creating significant numbers of jobs, with Mariana's initial projects aiming for over 500 construction jobs and additional full-time roles, and Heron's first factory also projected to create around 500 jobs. Drew Begalino notes the need for creativity in hiring, drawing parallels to hiring from high-speed bottling plants or syringe manufacturing facilities for battery operations, demonstrating the depth of talent available in the US when approached with an open mind and a shared vision. Turner Caldwell adds that for the mining industry, which has experienced significant labor attrition over 35 years, talent can be drawn from analogous sectors like oil and gas, as well as from the broader software talent pool, given the transferability of optimization algorithms. The key is to build a "talent magnet" by making these industries attractive and combating negative perceptions, effectively "making mining sexy again." The speakers identify several concrete actions to accelerate production and job creation. Turner Caldwell suggests looking at the successful strategies employed for oil and gas during energy mandates over the past 50 years and applying them to critical minerals. This includes establishing robust incentive structures that mobilize private capital by assuring long-term market stability. Drew Begalino advocates for durable industrial policy that provides a clear direction for investment. He also emphasizes the need for federal and state governments to collaborate in identifying areas for energy and manufacturing buildout, fostering colocated supply chains and encouraging local jurisdictions to facilitate, rather than obstruct, projects. Finally, he proposes a federal highway trust fund model for the electricity grid, a master plan for linear infrastructure buildout to improve resilience, reduce costs, and connect manufacturing and energy zones, thereby moving the nation forward.