Ormuz rouvre, Ormuz se referme, les marchés sont testés - La Météo des Marchés

The market experienced a volatile weekend following two weeks of significant gains. Tensions in the Middle East have caused some jitters, particularly after the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) initially opened with news of a ceasefire, which had a positive impact on markets, including cryptocurrencies. However, this optimism was short-lived as the DME closed again with conflicting reports and accusations of attacks on commercial vessels. Adding to the uncertainty, Iranian officials expressed divergent views: the Foreign Minister indicated no plans for negotiations, while the Iranian President stated that war is not in anyone's interest and diplomacy is needed to de-escalate tensions. This mixed messaging has left the market hesitant. Despite the Middle East tensions, the immediate impact on oil prices was a quick rebound upon market re-opening, but overall, there hasn't been a significant negative impact on major indices. The speaker describes the current market as "ridiculous" in its bullishness, with breakouts to all-time highs, and that losses related to past geopolitical events have been recovered with new peaks. The upcoming earnings season for tech companies, starting with Tesla on April 22nd and followed by Google and Meta on April 29th, is a key focus for the market, which is waiting to see how these results will unfold. Last week saw several rallies, with themes like artificial intelligence and fiber optics performing strongly, as well as quantum computing. The speaker plans to analyze Bitcoin as well. From a macroeconomic perspective, the VIX (volatility index) has seen a rebound, but it's not considered catastrophic, suggesting these are mere "jolts" rather than a significant worsening of the conflict. The market is awaiting today's and tomorrow's sessions for clearer direction, and the speaker notes that Mondays can be unreliable for definitive trends. However, the stock market, particularly the tech sector, appears to be in a strong bullish phase. Nvidia is performing exceptionally well, alongside Microsoft and other software companies that saw good rebounds last week. The speaker mentions taking profits on a trade related to this. Tesla experienced a significant rebound, but the speaker is personally hesitant about its chart patterns and trading dynamics. They also caution about powerful "V-bottom" reversals, citing Netflix's 10% drop last week as an example of stocks being "punished." Despite these individual stock movements, the overall market remains bullish and tech-oriented, though rotations between sectors are occurring. European markets also saw some negative surprises, such as Alstom's poor results, which led to significant losses for investors in what were considered stable, horizontal stocks. This highlights the importance of careful asset and sector selection, as not all areas are performing equally. On a more positive note, Robinhood and Coinbase showed strong recoveries last week. Coinbase, in particular, is showing a "W-type" structure, though it hasn't yet broken out and is likely waiting for Bitcoin to confirm. These structures appearing at annual support levels are seen as positive signs. Uranium also experienced significant rebounds, and while it might be late to jump in, it's an area to watch. Quantum computing has also seen large rebounds, potentially due to "excitability" in the sector. However, the speaker notes that the sector is emerging from a significant bear market, with a 75% drop, and cautions that it might be too late to invest. They compare the rapid fluctuations to those seen in cryptocurrencies and suggest that dips or consolidations could present opportunities, though they personally prefer to let the price action develop and will continue to monitor the sector for developing structures. Bitcoin has been a source of disappointment, with a recent drop that significantly impacted sentiment, especially for those who entered the market late in the rally when enthusiasm was high. This drop led to a near-total liquidation of open interest. Following this sharp decline, market sentiment on Bitcoin has become very pessimistic, with rebounds occurring with low derivative activity. The speaker suggests that those who leveraged heavily to "make it all back in one trade" have likely lost their positions. The current rebound is not accompanied by significant speculative derivative interest, indicating that Bitcoin still needs to prove itself. Drawing on Wyckoff principles, the speaker notes that even though Bitcoin has moved out of its weekly structure, it could still trade within a zone or even trap those expecting further declines before potentially moving higher. The most definitive sign of Bitcoin's strength would be a sustained move above $78,000 or $80,000. The recent rejection has been a significant setback. Analysis of the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows that "super whales" were initially aggressive buyers but began distributing heavily in a specific zone. Interestingly, the price did not crash during this distribution and even moved higher, suggesting that these sellers were absorbed. However, this period coincided with retail investors entering the market out of FOMO (fear of missing out) during the breakout phase. The subsequent price suppression, with orders following and retail investors getting caught, indicates that the advantage is not with the retail traders, as the "super whales" have moved into liquidity. Therefore, this upward movement still has much to prove, and the weekend's events have undoubtedly hampered Bitcoin's progress. A bullish gap on the CME would have signaled institutional interest, but the current uncertainty allows for doubt. In conclusion, the past week ended on a positive note, but the weekend brought significant volatility. The market's reaction to these weekend events will be closely watched. The speaker offers further education on trading, planning, mindset management, and strategy development through their "Alpha Team" service, which includes community access, five live sessions per week, and tools from the "Alpha Desk."