Rebond surprise sur la Bourse : NFP Vendredi, Gap Lundi ? - La Météo des Marchés

Hello and welcome to the market weather report. I hope you're doing well. Today, Gabriel is here to serve you. Yesterday, there was a big, surprising rebound. We were surprised because it was something that needed to be anticipated in this small chop shop cutting on the NASDAQ, at the beginning of the American session, and boom, it took off. Personally, I played this rally on Interactive Broker, which is where I trade, on the QQQ, an ETF. I caught a good part of the movement and closed at the end of the evening. I see that we reached our destination; it went a little higher. The element of surprise is consumed, we could say. And the question that arises is, does it continue higher? First, it’s important to note that yesterday's rebound was significant. Look at the Magnificent Seven. So, it wasn't a small rebound. Nvidia and Google were very strong, Microsoft was quite good with a lot of margin, and the pre-market continues. Consequently, a lot of money entered the market yesterday, even though the S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022. So, the question is, are we returning to a bull market where we forget everything and life goes on, or will it continue to go lower? It's delicate. It's delicate because we might be in a phase that is quite common on American indices. You can tell me if you've experienced this before or heard people say the same thing. Before we start, let's look at the stress indicators. The dollar index is calming down, and we could potentially cry wolf or talk about the end of times or a financial apocalypse or abysses. We have an Alpha member who likes to talk about abysses when we frankly break here. But for now, no, not yet. For now, there's no recession or anything else in the chart. This dollar has been tamed and controlled below 100 for the moment. That doesn't mean it won't consolidate and go there later, but I would say that we can start ringing the bells and dressing in sackcloth and ashes in the street, shouting "punishment, punishment," when we've passed, for example, 102. Meanwhile, oil was particularly resilient yesterday. My short position didn't go very well. It's okay; I was able to profit from the tech rebound, but yes, it was particularly resilient. However, it's doing what was potentially conceivable. That is, we are in a range, and we visited the range. For now, it's holding. Those who entered the TAR must surely have some form of complacency, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it come down here, retesting the lower part of this range at some point. Especially since Goldman Sachs has just raised its forecast for Brent crude to 100. For me, Goldman Sachs is the devil; they are a very good counter-indicator. It's something I always monitor. You need discernment; they've made good calls on gold, for example. But personally, when these friends who wish us well tell us, "Go ahead, buddy, you have nothing to fear, it's going to go up," you can start saying that it's the end. Besides that, they made calls on VLO, which is an oil company, and generally, these are guys who know how to ring the final bell. For me, it's not the time to get into oil. It's something that is crowded. Now, you might say, "Yes, but the situation is not resolved." No, it's not resolved, but the market might not care. We have the reason why it went up, but once everyone has internalized why it should continue to go up, it can go in the other direction, and people won't understand why. So, what matters is what the price could do. And precisely, I wanted to get to this psychological process that I have often seen on the indices, with people who were very convinced that, oh no, you absolutely must not invest in the indices right now. You've heard that before. You absolutely must not invest in the indices right now because there are all sorts of reasons: the economy is bad, this is bad, everything is bad, and so on. And that's when the indices quietly go up, every day it goes up, and then you realize that the thing is going to make additional upward moves. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but in my experience, when you see this kind of discourse and the sentiment has changed, and people have absorbed all the reasons why it shouldn't go up in this flow of news, well, that's when it becomes the most difficult to buy because you're right. You tell yourself, "But it shouldn't, it can't go up, but why is it going up? It can't go up." And so, we're a bit in that kind of situation. We've been shaken by the news. War market, volatility, markets that don't want to rebound. How long has it been falling? It's been three months now. Two months that it's been rather tense, and the rebounds are weak. The VIX, let's not kid ourselves, it's on relatively extreme movements. We had gone to 31. Generally, the VIX's destiny is to go back down, and the thing is, there's no good news à priori, and yet it's decreasing. So, did the market say, "Okay, we can take risks again, and anyway, whatever happens, we've almost contemplated the worst, almost the nuclear bomb, so we're potentially going to hold strong, and we short this VIX, we buy back the indices, and life goes on in the best of all possible worlds"? Nothing has changed in the magical American market, which only goes up, as is well known. So, it's possible that this is what's happening. Now, there can still be spikes. In the past, 24 was huge, but I would say that since early March, it's rather normal, even quite good. So, that's a bit of the question. So, is oil coming back down? In any case, the dollar doesn't seem to have settled in the apocalyptic zone. The VIX is coming down. And what we see is that big money has arrived on large-cap stocks. So now, does that mean you should buy here? Well, unless you're a day trader and you manage to take positions with relatively tight stops to avoid getting caught and not finding yourself underwater, well, why not? And if you're a swing trader and you need structure for your trading, etc., personally, a small retest of the first leg. So, I need to show it, and maybe I'll have to show it up to there. We don't know how high it will go. I'm talking about this first leg when we have a drop. So, this is a little trader's trick that I'm giving you, things that serve me. Even if, for example, on the indices, it's often a V-bottom. If we look, it doesn't change much. There are things that don't change much. There are still sometimes opportunities that repeat, big rebound, boom, boom, but ultimately, we have another entry. And what I'm giving you here as a trader's tip, trader-investor, it's the same, it's just the time unit that changes. It's that if you didn't play the rebound yesterday because it's not your trading style, it's not crazy to play the first retest. And playing the first retest can be marked with a Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.786. If the market is super bullish, it can be a 0.5, that's a classic 0.5. So, for example, I erase everything. I erase everything. I put my Fibo tool at 0.5, and let's say, here we have a big rebound up to 590. Let's be crazy. 600, a psychological round number. So, if it goes straight up, and that risks being painful if you're not in it. But then you see 0.5 here for an entry of this style after a pullback. Which is not unreasonable; it would seem relatively normal in the world of the NASDAQ, which only goes up, or a little lower here. So, personally, I took the rebound trade. I took profit a bit early, certainly. I'll see if I can take another trade today. But well, I've already opened quite a few positions on my particular tech thesis that I discussed with the alpha members on Tuesday. So, I don't really need to expose myself further. Here, what could be done, a little lower, would mean that if we don't go up to here, let's be more reasonable. We have a very, very ugly big weekly bearish structure that was made and that will perhaps need to be tidied up a bit in the zone to determine. Maybe the big rebound doesn't go that far, but let's say a retest of the structure or a retest here, something like that. Well, that leads us to a buying opportunity that we could evaluate on a rebound on a retest that could be experienced as, "Yes, but we told you anyway, the war isn't over," and so on. And if the sentiment is really very negative in this area, then considering a purchase is the second chance. There aren't often more than two chances. The first, the second, and then that's it. So FOMO here is a bit delicate if you want to sleep on your positions because you risk being underwater there. You risk being underwater for a day or two and a little underwater. So, a little to see. It's true the situation hasn't improved. Everyone knows the situation hasn't improved. The war might last 2 years, 10 years, we don't know. The Strait of Hormuz might not reopen. But I saw that maritime transport, the graphs were pretty. I took two positions on maritime transport. So, à priori, they find other routes, they manage. What else did I see? I need to announce that Friday is Good Friday. Personally, I am Christian. There will be no market weather report. There will be no market report, but you won't be too bothered because there are no markets either. It's Good Friday for the American markets too. So, I wish you a good Good Friday. Other believers, I wish you many good things in your religion too, but I won't be here; I'll be doing family things. And what can happen is that there will be news, the non-farm payroll. These are the unemployment figures. The unemployment figures are important news that can influence the Fed's policy with cuts or hikes. That means, will it go up or will it go down? And à priori, there were some small stories. There was an office that was closed and reopened. I think this office was called Kaiser. And à priori, that would mean that 300 additional jobs should be included in the figures. So, a little tip, it can be surprising. And after that, the question I ask myself is, on Monday, April 6th, when we open, since the news will fall on Friday, will those who didn't have the guts to take a position on Thursday evening, that is tomorrow, find themselves with a big surprise on Monday, seeing a big gap, improvement in unemployment figures, the market gets carried away, and then people say, "Well, well," and finally realize that they entered very far from the best entries? That's also one of the possibilities, knowing that Trump announced on April 6th that he would strike Iranian nuclear power plants, and everyone knows, of course, he will say he will strike them. No, it's very clear he will say everything is fine. Obviously, all his friends will have bought billions of contracts around here, and so you might end up with a combo of good figures and a combo gap. It opens on Monday, and you're frustrated because you weren't in position, and ultimately it's too late to enter. It's one of the possibilities. It's risky to enter on a Thursday with everything that's happening right now. It's risky. But will Trump chicken out? Will Trump back down? Well, according to the same internet lore, "Trump always chickens out," it seems very likely that he will ultimately say that everything is fine. Today, the Iranian minister said, "Yes, we don't want a ceasefire, we want peace. We want peace." And Donald Trump immediately sent, "No, no, we will annihilate them if they don't open the Strait of Hormuz." Again, every day there are mixed signals. Just yesterday, he was saying, "Yeah, let Europe figure out how to open the Strait of Hormuz." Trump never gets tired. He always has something interesting, original to say; original is the word, we could say. So, that's pretty much all I have today. So, if there are things you're really attached to, that you're trembling about, a little mindset lesson, you're trembling, the idea is not to go all in, it's not to bet too big on your idea, but to be exposed to this idea in case you have this gap here and things ultimately turn out well, money has entered tech. In my opinion, it's really too late for oil. We have a potential rebound on metals. We have a potential rebound on metals. It has already started; it's a bit late to say it's the beginning, but here we have a small daily structure. In my opinion, we don't have to be unidirectional because if money goes into tech, it won't necessarily be directly into both metals and tech, but we can work the zone here before ultimately returning higher. For me, the most precious play is behind us. So, for me, the idea was to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, especially if we end up forming a kind of descending triangle. Sorry for the scribbles, but it's a way of drawing prophetic actions as far as I'm concerned. But we have a structure if you like daily double bottoms and you say, "Okay, why not go for the top of the range?" and you say, "Okay, we're still in a war situation, the dollar is calming down, why not?" That's pretty much all I have to tell you today. We'll see tomorrow. I hope you enjoyed it. Alpha Team is great. If you want to learn trading, swing trading, we can include investing, but investing with us won't be like with other people who tell you, "Yes, you just have to buy. You buy, you buy, you buy, and then you never sell." We select, we are more cherry-pickers. We select our assets, we define our risk, and then we get paid. We get paid. That's important. So, take care of yourselves and see you next time. This was Gabriel. Bye.