มุมมอง SCB EIC ‘พ.ร.ก. กู้ 4 แสนล้านบาท ปี 2026’ ช่วยเศรษฐกิจไทยได้แค่ไหน | THE STANDARD WEALTH

The Thai economy faces significant challenges, including lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, high living costs, and informal debt. While exports have seen growth, it's largely driven by imports, and recent geopolitical conflicts, such as in the Middle East, have negatively impacted exports and tourism. Rising energy prices and potential US tariffs add further risks. In response, the government has enacted an emergency decree to borrow 400 billion baht, aiming to stimulate the economy. This fund is divided into two main components: 200 billion baht for immediate relief and support, and 200 billion baht for long-term economic transformation, particularly focusing on renewable energy and transitioning to a green economy. The first part, the "stabilization budget," is intended to alleviate burdens on citizens, such as through existing welfare programs and potential top-ups. However, its economic impact is expected to be limited due to potential "leakage," where money is spent on everyday consumption or imports rather than stimulating domestic production. The effectiveness also depends on how efficiently these funds are distributed and if they truly change spending habits. The second part, the "transition budget," aims for long-term structural changes, such as investing in solar power, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems. While this component is crucial for future economic restructuring and promoting a green economy, its benefits will likely not be seen for several years, with an estimated incremental GDP growth of 0.1-0.2% in the long run. A significant challenge here is the reliance on imported components for these technologies, meaning a portion of the investment benefits foreign economies. Economically, the injection of 400 billion baht, representing about 2% of GDP, is projected to boost economic growth modestly. This year's growth is estimated at 0.7%, with a projected decrease to 0.4% next year due to a higher base. The stimulus is considered timely as the economy's growth engine has softened. However, concerns exist regarding the country's fiscal stability. The public debt ceiling is approaching 70% of GDP, which could impact credit ratings and financial costs. SCB EIC estimates the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach the 70% ceiling by 2027 and may rise to 75% in the next five years, driven by slower economic growth and persistent budget deficits. While inflation is a concern, particularly from the supply side due to high energy and raw material costs, the government's borrowing is not seen as a direct solution to this. To maximize the positive impact of the 400 billion baht, SCB EIC emphasizes four key priorities: ensuring funds are used for their intended purpose, attracting private sector investment and public-private partnerships, reducing dependence on imports, and reforming energy regulations to encourage further investment in renewable energy. The success of these measures will determine whether the borrowing truly acts as a "game-changer" for Thailand's long-term economic structure and resilience. The analysis highlights that while immediate relief is necessary, the transformative potential lies in the long-term strategic investments, particularly in the green economy.