My Honest Take on Buying Bitcoin and Altcoins in May 2026

Most people misunderstand altcoins by ignoring Bitcoin. The speaker believes the Bitcoin bear market bottom hasn't occurred yet, as it hasn't reached the 200-week simple moving average, unlike previous cycles. While Bitcoin is currently in a short-term daily uptrend, potentially reaching 85k, significant resistance lies ahead, including the 200-day SMA at 83.9k. The bull market confirmation, the 50-week SMA, is at 95.7k, indicating the current rally doesn't confirm a bull market. The speaker holds 80% of their portfolio in Bitcoin, acquired at lower prices, and advises against aggressive buying of Bitcoin in May due to its current relative expense compared to bear market lows. They anticipate a high probability (over 50%) of Bitcoin revisiting the low 60k range, near the 200-week SMA, making current levels risky for new buys. For altcoins, the speaker expects them to bottom when their ratio to Bitcoin (Total2/Bitcoin market cap) drops to 0.36-0.41, a level historically indicating altcoin cheapness relative to Bitcoin. This could happen by late May or early June. However, even if altcoins become cheap relative to Bitcoin, the speaker will only buy them when Bitcoin itself bottoms, ideally around the low 60k range or below its 200-week SMA. This strategy involves waiting for a "super bad" market sentiment where Bitcoin is rejected at higher levels and drops, and altcoins are at their cycle sentiment lows. The speaker plans to use their 20% cash reserve to buy fundamentally strong altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB when these two conditions (Bitcoin at low 60s and altcoin/Bitcoin ratio below 0.4) are met. They caution against buying altcoins now due to mixed signals and the risk of another market flush if Bitcoin gets rejected.