คลังชี้ ‘รถเก่าแลกใหม่’ ติดปมตีราคา-กำจัดซาก เปิดทางปรับมาตรการ | Morning Wealth 12 พ.ค. 69

Good morning and welcome to the program. Today, May 12th, 2026, we're discussing several key issues, starting with Donald Trump's upcoming visit to China, accompanied by senior executives from major US corporations. Notably, Jen Sen-hoon of NVIDIA is not included, raising questions about the implications for companies distributing NVIDIA chips through China. We'll also follow up on the Hantavirus issue, which has led to an investigation into pharmaceutical companies and vaccine producers. Finally, we'll examine the stalled old car trade-in program and its potential obstacles. The proposed old car trade-in program, which has garnered significant public interest, faces numerous obstacles, according to the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Ms. Woransaengsit. Key challenges include agreeing on a fair appraisal price for used cars, given their varying conditions, lifespans, and market values. The disposal of car wreckage and the separation of parts also pose a problem, as Thailand lacks a comprehensive and efficient recycling system for automotive components like iron, batteries, and electrical materials. This absence could lead to reliance on the discretion of appraisal officers, creating inconsistencies and potential risks. The Ministry of Finance has instructed the Excise Department to re-examine the project details and adjust measures to promote environmentally friendly vehicles. The current ambiguity in the trade-in scheme has caused consumers to postpone new car purchases, negatively impacting the car market. For the project to move forward, clear criteria are needed, especially concerning the 400 billion baht loan decree. The government aims to push this project, with 200 billion baht allocated to support energy sector changes, including promoting eco-friendly vehicles and expanding EV charging stations. A screening committee will review loan payments, and the first meeting will establish framework rules for project utilization. The "Thai Help Thai Plus" project, approved by the cabinet, is expected to start by June 1st. Dr. Kobsap Phutrakul, Chairman of the Thai Capital Market Business Council, warns that Thailand is entering an era of economic hardship and scarcity, with the investment world's "good times" ending. He advises careful investment decisions, even in AI, recommending placing spare cash in safe assets. The Thai economy in March saw private consumption, investment, and tourism decline due to the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. Exports, however, grew by 19%, becoming the sole economic driver. The Bank of Thailand has lowered its GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2% in 2026 and cut the policy interest rate to 1%. The Thai baht is expected to depreciate to 33-34 baht per US dollar, benefiting exports, tourism, and agriculture. While the 400 billion baht loan could stimulate the economy and attract investment, it also accelerates public debt accumulation, limiting government fiscal space. Dr. Kobsak suggests using these "last savings" wisely, investing in energy infrastructure transformation, like solar panel installation, instead of oil price subsidies. He also recommends attracting foreign investment, citing TikTok's 800 billion baht data center investment in Thailand. The Thai automotive industry, once dominated by Japanese companies, now faces intense competition from Chinese EV brands like BYD and MG, highlighting fundamental business changes that require rapid adaptation. Vietnam, with its rapidly growing economy, is embarking on the "Hanoi 100-Year Master Plan," a mega-project to transform its capital. This 2.5 trillion USD initiative, funded by both public and private sectors over the next two decades, aims for 11% annual GDP growth and will restructure the city from a single center to a multicenter system, focusing on the Red River. By 2030, Hanoi aims to be a modern city connecting regional and international levels, accommodating up to 12 million people. By 2035, a 410-kilometer urban electricity system will be completed. The long-term vision extends to 2045, with Hanoi becoming a smart, ecological, and globally connected city, aligning with Vietnam's goal of becoming a developed nation. By 2065, a 613 km railway network with 14 subway lines will reduce reliance on motorcycles. This ambitious plan addresses population growth, infrastructure limitations, quality of life improvements, economic goals, urban planning errors, rising housing prices, and climate change, including pollution of the Red River and flood prevention measures like seven new bridges. Donald Trump's visit to China from May 13th to 15th, his first in nine years, will include discussions with President Xi Jinping on critical issues such as Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, nuclear expansion, and critical mineral resources. This meeting takes place amidst strained relations, including trade wars and conflicts in the Middle East. Trump aims to finalize trade and investment deals, with China expected to announce purchases of US agricultural and energy products. Both sides may also establish trade and investment committees. Discussions will cover extending tax exemptions and managing rare earth mineral shipments. Accompanying Trump will be a delegation of over 10 executives from major US tech and financial companies, including Aaron Mas (Tesla), Tim Cook (Apple), Kelly Abbey (Boeing), Larry Fink (BlackRock), and Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase). Notably absent is Jen-Hsun Huang of NVIDIA, which could signal a negative outlook for NVIDIA's chip exports to China. The visit aims to unlock business deals and purchases of Chinese-made goods. Tesla, facing fierce competition in China, hopes for additional support, including approval for its autonomous driving technology. This high-profile delegation reflects a potentially improved relationship between Trump and Elon Musk, despite past conflicts. Cisco Systems, however, declined the invitation due to other commitments. News of the visit has already positively impacted stock prices of companies like Tesla, Apple, Boeing, Visa, Mastercard, and GE. Boeing is expected to announce a historic order for 500 737 Max aircraft during the visit. Regarding the Hantavirus, an outbreak on the Dutch cruise ship MV Hondius, docked at Tenerife Island, has raised concerns. While the World Health Organization (WHO) confirms the virus is painful, it states the risk of person-to-person transmission is low, similar to COVID-19. Pharmaceutical companies like Moderna, a COVID-19 vaccine developer, saw a temporary stock price increase after announcing clinical research related to the virus. However, analysts believe the Hantavirus is unlikely to generate significant revenue for Moderna due to the small number of infections and its limited impact on fundamental business factors. Other companies like Invio Pharmaceutical, Novax, and Emergent Biosolutions saw their shares fall. Authorities are closely monitoring the situation, and passengers are disembarking under strict public health measures. In other news, the South Korean K-pop group BTS recently made a highly anticipated comeback in Mexico, generating an estimated 155 billion won (approximately 3 billion baht) for the local economy. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted BTS's role as a bridge for friendship, music, diplomacy, and economics between Mexico and South Korea. The band's visit, including a formal invitation to the Presidential Palace, drew massive crowds of 50,000-70,000 fans. Mexico is a major consumer of K-pop, with BTS's "Dynamite" being the most streamed K-pop song. This "Purple Economy" phenomenon has made BTS a case study in global economic influence, contributing an estimated 3% to South Korea's GDP. Their "Arirang World Tour" will span over 30 cities in 23 countries, including Thailand. Dr. Pipat Luea Narmitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Business, warns that the world is undergoing a "tsunami" of change, summarized by the "4D principle." First, demographic changes, particularly a declining working-age population and low birth rates, limit Thailand's economic growth to 2-3% annually. Businesses must focus on efficiency and niche consumer groups. Second, a polarized world with US-China competition and resource scarcity requires businesses to prepare for worst-case scenarios. Third, the climate crisis has passed a point of no return, making environmental considerations crucial. Fourth, rapid technological advancements and shifting consumer behavior, like the move to digital platforms, demand business adaptation. Thai consumers, facing uncertainty, are downsizing expectations and prioritizing health and financial preparedness, seeking "small joys" rather than grand happiness. A Bloomberg report alleges that some Thai companies are involved in illegally shipping NVIDIA chips to China, using Thailand as a transit point for chips manufactured in Taiwan. Dr. Wiboon Rakcharoenphol, Vice President of the Electrical and Electronics Industry Group at the Thailand National Science and Technology Development Agency, confirms the news, citing the Supermicro computer company's packaging of NVIDIA graphics cards and their export via Thailand to Alibaba. While Siam AI, a company linked to OBON (the alleged Thai transit company), has denied involvement, the US Department of Justice has not yet officially investigated OBON. This situation could impact Thailand's trade relations with the US, potentially leading to stricter tariffs under Section 301. Dr. Wiboon emphasizes the need for Thailand to establish a system for separating sensitive electronic components from general electronics to address security concerns. He advises the Thai government to initiate dialogue with the USTR (United States Trade Representative) to exchange information and, if an investigation proceeds, cooperate in forming a joint investigation team. Regarding Shinawatra family-related stocks, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's recent suspended sentence has sparked interest. However, the influence of Shin Corporation stocks in the Thai capital market has diminished significantly since the family sold all its shares to Singapore's Temasek Group in 2006 for over 70 billion baht. Currently, only two publicly traded companies, SC Asset (real estate) and Rama 9 Hospital, have direct connections to the Shinawatra family. Despite Thaksin's parole, the broader Thai stock market experienced a decline, reflecting a gradual fading of the family's direct influence on the market. Thai Oil Public Company Limited reported a net profit growth of 456% in Q1 2026, reaching 19.481 billion baht. This impressive figure was primarily driven by oil inventory profits (16.746 billion baht) due to rising global oil prices, as Thai Oil purchases crude oil weeks in advance. After deducting bond buyback profits and other losses, the actual net profit from oil refining operations was 4.136 billion baht, or 90 satang per liter. Management warns that these inventory profits are temporary, and the company anticipates high volatility and potential losses in Q2 and Q3 due to increased crude oil premiums from the Middle East crisis. Thai Oil denies oil hoarding and faces challenges with diesel fuel overstocking due to government export restrictions, potentially requiring a 10% reduction in production capacity. Discussions are ongoing with the Ministry of Energy to balance energy security with business operational needs.