SpaceX’s IPO Could Leave Tesla Eating Rocket Dust

SpaceX's potential IPO could present a significant challenge for Tesla, potentially overshadowing the EV company. If SpaceX goes public near the rumored $1.75 trillion valuation, it would be one of history's largest IPOs and offer Tesla investors a new, potentially more exciting investment in Elon Musk's ventures. Many Tesla investors, including Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, perceive SpaceX as a better investment, especially as Tesla's core EV sales have plateaued. Tesla's first-quarter results underscored this shift, with net income rising to $477 million, up 16% year-over-year, but significantly below the previous three quarters. The company's battery business contracted by 12%, and overall revenue of $22.4 billion, while up 16%, was also below the prior three quarters. Tesla reported no revenue from its tiny robotaxi fleet or Optimus Robots, which are not yet in production, though the company plans substantial investment in AI and robotics. Tesla shares are down about 17% this year. Gonzalo Brujo, CEO of Interbrand, noted that Tesla's brand value plunged 35% in 2025, largely due to Musk's unpopularity related to his political involvement. While some pressure has eased, it hasn't led to a comeback for the brand. Dan Coatsworth of AJ Bell suggested SpaceX could mirror Tesla's early success, leveraging a first-mover advantage in the space economy, a position Tesla once held in EVs but is now seeing erode as competitors catch up. Musk's reputation for creating the modern EV market and persistent claims of impending technical wonders have driven Tesla's stock to trade at nearly 200 times projected earnings, with a market cap 12 times its estimated $100 billion revenue this year. However, SpaceX's projected $1.75 trillion IPO valuation is about 80 times its estimated $22 billion revenue, primarily from Starlink, making Tesla's valuation appear conservative by comparison.