แบงก์ชาติเตือนรายได้คนไทยปีนี้จ่อ ‘ติดลบ’ ครั้งแรกตั้งแต่ช่วงโควิด! | THE STANDARD WEALTH

The Thai economy, after a COVID-induced downturn and recovery, faces a tougher year in 2026. The Bank of Thailand projects a 3% decline in overall labor income for 2026, a significant slowdown compared to previous years' growth. This decline is attributed to a slowdown in the tourism sector, impacted by the Middle East conflict, and harsh weather affecting the agricultural sector. While employee income, representing 59% of total labor income, is expected to expand, its growth rate will slow from 4.1% (2015-2019) to 3.2%. Self-employed individuals (31% of labor income) will see a contraction of -3% in 2026, after slower growth in 2025. Farmers (10% of labor income) face the most severe income crisis, with a projected decline of 8.5% to 5% in 2026. This income contraction coincides with high living costs due to rising energy prices and raw material costs, primarily from the Middle East. Private consumption is forecast to slow to 1.6% in 2026. However, an easing of global situations and a return of tourists in 2027 could lead to a recovery in private consumption, expanding by 1.9%.