Dette privée : prochaine crise des subprimes ? - Allo La Martingale #50

In this 50th episode of *Allo la Martingale*, host Amory Tonkadex welcomes Stanislas de Bailliencourt, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Sycomore Asset Management. With over two decades of experience, de Bailliencourt provides a deep dive into the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the shifting landscape of central bank policies, and the growing fears surrounding the private debt market. ### Geopolitical Tensions and the Energy Market The conversation begins with the 17-day-old conflict involving Iran. Initially, markets anticipated a swift resolution. However, the situation has devolved into a stalemate. Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz has created a significant bottleneck for global oil and gas supplies. Despite Donald Trump’s calls for international assistance to secure the strait, global support remains thin, causing oil prices to surge. De Bailliencourt notes that this is primarily an exogenous energy price shock. Unlike the 2022 Ukraine crisis, there are fewer immediate disruptions to general supply chains, but the inflationary pressure from energy is significant. For investors, this reinforces the "energy independence" thesis. He highlights a 180-degree pivot in Europe toward nuclear energy and a sustained interest in renewables and energy efficiency. While the market saw an 8–10% drop in Europe and Asia early in the conflict, certain sectors like banking remain robust due to stronger capital reserves built over the last decade. Interestingly, gold has not acted as a traditional safe haven during this crisis. Because it had already rallied significantly over the past 24 months, investors treated it as a "risky asset" to be sold for profit-taking and liquidity. Similarly, sovereign bonds have fallen in price as investors anticipate higher inflation and fewer interest rate cuts. ### The Central Bank Dilemma The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) face a complex challenge. The Fed must balance growth and employment with price stability, while the ECB focuses primarily on inflation "across the cycle." De Bailliencourt argues that raising interest rates to combat energy-driven (exogenous) inflation is a mistake. Such a move would stifle already weak growth—barely 1% in the Eurozone—and aggravate the high public debt levels accumulated since the pandemic. While markets are currently pricing in fewer rate cuts or even potential hikes, de Bailliencourt remains skeptical. He suggests that if the energy crisis normalizes within weeks, the pressure to hike will vanish. However, every day the conflict lingers, the probability of a long-term economic slowdown increases. ### Private Debt: The New Subprime? A major portion of the discussion focuses on private debt—a market that has exploded over the last 15 years as banks pulled back from corporate lending. Some analysts fear a "subprime-style" collapse, but de Bailliencourt offers a more nuanced view. He distinguishes between corporate bonds and private debt. Bonds are transparent and liquid; their prices adjust daily based on market risk. Private debt, however, is illiquid. Investors act like bankers, locking in capital for 5 to 10 years. The current "crisis" in this sector is not necessarily one of mass insolvency, but of a "liquidity mismatch." Many retail-friendly products promised easier exits, but the underlying loans cannot be liquidated quickly. When major players like BlackRock or Blue Owl face high redemption requests, they are forced to limit withdrawals, creating panic. While defaults are rising—particularly in the US software sector due to AI disruption—de Bailliencourt does not see a systemic "subprime" crash. Instead, he views this as the first real "stress test" for the private debt asset class. He warns investors that private debt should only be considered with a long-term horizon (10+ years) to capture the "liquidity premium" without being caught in a mismatch. ### Strategic Investment Recommendations When asked for high-conviction or "speculative" bets, de Bailliencourt points toward Asian Technology. He envisions a bifurcated world: US tech giants on one side and emerging Asian giants (in Korea, Japan, and Singapore) on the other. This sector offers significant growth potential as these regions develop their own independent technological ecosystems. For a 10-year "island" investment—assets to be held without intervention—he suggests a two-pronged approach: 1. **Energy Transition and Independence:** Investing in companies providing solutions for nuclear energy, renewables, and regionalized supply chains. This is a multi-decade cycle that will persist regardless of short-term volatility. 2. **Dated Bond Funds (Target Maturity):** Specifically, European High Yield funds. Currently, these offer yields above 5%. De Bailliencourt notes that the European High Yield market is more qualitative today than it was a decade ago, with many companies trending toward "Investment Grade" status. These funds provide visibility and regular returns, acting as a stabilizing force in a portfolio. In conclusion, while geopolitical and inflationary risks are rising, de Bailliencourt emphasizes that resilience lies in selectivity. Whether in the bond market or energy sector, the goal is to find the balance between yield and the probability of delivery, while respecting the necessary time horizons for illiquid assets.