DCA en Bear Market : l'Erreur que tout le monde fait sans le savoir

Welcome to the Investia podcast. The host begins by highlighting his recent consistency in producing the podcast weekly, attributing it to a new strategy of recording episodes in advance. He expresses personal satisfaction at recovering from a knee injury that had prevented him from running and pursuing activities like Jiu-Jitsu and trekking, and shares his excitement for upcoming running challenges. The first topic discussed is finance, specifically an error to avoid with Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in a bear market. DCA is presented as a powerful investment method where a fixed amount is invested regularly into an asset to smooth out the entry price. While effective for assets like Bitcoin, the crucial element for successful DCA, especially in crypto, is selecting the right assets. The host explains that in a bear market, liquidity concentrates on essential market infrastructure projects (like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) and narrative leaders with strong future expectations (like AI-related tokens such as Tao). The common mistake is to believe one's own judgment over market signals. An example is given: someone who started DCA on Bitcoin at its 2021 peak would now have an average price of around $40,000 and be in profit. However, if the same person had started DCA on popular altcoins like Atom or Polkadot at their peak, they would be significantly down, with average prices much higher than current trading values. The host warns against DCAing into riskier altcoins outside the top 10, as their survival in a bear market is highly uncertain and depends on factors like company treasury, team strength, and potential layoffs. History shows that seemingly solid altcoins can be severely damaged in bear markets due to factors like extensive token vesting leading to selling pressure. The host advises against DCAing altcoins with a high risk of disappearance, preferring to wait for significant market dips to invest in projects deemed genuinely promising. DCA, he emphasizes, should be an act of conviction, not hope. Next, the podcast delves into "the greatest wealth transfer." Baby boomers, born in the 1960s, accumulated significant wealth, particularly through property acquisition. As this generation ages, an estimated $84 trillion will change hands by 2045. A substantial portion, over $40 trillion, is expected to go to women due to their longer life expectancy. This impending transfer is causing concern in the traditional banking sector, as heirs are less likely to stick with their parents' financial advisors. Approximately 80-90% of heirs reportedly leave their parents' financial advisors upon receiving inheritances. This shift is partly driven by the increased accessibility of investment information through platforms like YouTube and online articles. Heirs are looking for transparent, user-friendly, and meaningful investment options, with Bitcoin being cited as an example of an asset appealing to this demographic. The transferred wealth is expected to flow into traditional economies (like real estate) but also into "alternative" economies: the experience economy (travel, life moments), alternative assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, biotechnology, cybersecurity), and impact investing (productive investments in climate tech or biotech startups, rather than just charity). This creates a paradox for traditional institutions, as unprecedented amounts of money are available but harder for them to capture. The third topic explores "the hidden cost of comfort." The human brain often seeks comfort, leading people to optimize their lives to avoid friction through routines, stable jobs, habitual choices, and familiar social circles. This tendency, while appearing wise, can be a form of self-sabotage. The host shares a personal anecdote about avoiding familiar faces in unexpected settings due to a desire to avoid uncomfortable conversations. This comfort comes at an invisible cost. Our brains exhibit a "status quo bias," preferring the current state of affairs and perceiving change as a threat and stability as a reward. This was a useful survival mechanism for millions of years when the unknown meant danger. However, in modern times, this mechanism can lead to stagnation. Examples include refusing promotions due to increased responsibility, staying in mediocre relationships, or perpetually delaying personal projects or career changes. The host states that the brain often confuses security with stagnation, and stagnation, like muscle atrophy, leads to the gradual and silent loss of skills, confidence, and the ability to tolerate uncertainty. He notes that his own social skills and comfort with new people improve with practice. Comfort is valuable for recovery and consolidation but becomes detrimental when it becomes a permanent state, as markets, relationships, and skills constantly evolve. The host encourages listeners to gently introduce new, slightly uncomfortable activities into their lives, offering his own example of replacing evening TV with learning music. The key question to ask is not "Am I happy where I am?" but "Is where I am making me grow or putting me to sleep?" He also shares his approach of having "seasons" of expansion and intense work, followed by periods of rest. He concludes this segment with a quote: "When you are no longer afraid of anything, it's rarely because you are invincible. It's often because you have stopped trying things that truly matter." The podcast then transitions to a historical anecdote about Jiro Ono, the renowned 100-year-old sushi chef. His restaurant, Sukiyabashi Jiro, located in a Tokyo subway basement, has only 10 seats, no menu, and serves a 20-minute meal of 20 sushi pieces for around €150-€200. Born in 1925 into poverty, Jiro started working at age 7 and became a sushi apprentice at 9. He opened his restaurant in 1965 and has been making sushi daily for 60 years. In 2007, his restaurant became the first sushi establishment globally to earn three Michelin stars. In 2014, Barack Obama chose Jiro's restaurant for his first meal in Japan. In 2019, Michelin removed the restaurant from its guide not due to a drop in quality, but because Jiro stopped accepting public reservations, making it exclusive to introduced regular clients. Jiro's philosophy, highlighted in the 2011 documentary "Jiro Dreams of Sushi," emphasizes total dedication to one's chosen profession, loving the work, never complaining, and relentlessly pursuing perfection. He believes that success comes from giving everything to a single pursuit, day after day, in continuous improvement—a concept akin to the Japanese "Kaizen." Despite 60 years of daily practice, Jiro claims he has not yet achieved perfection. This story prompts reflection on how many things we do well in life, and why that number is often so small. Finally, the podcast moves to a science topic: the discovery of 500-million-year-old life in a Chinese quarry. In Hunan province, paleontologists unearthed over 8,600 fossils, representing 153 animal species, 91 of which were previously unknown. These organisms lived approximately 512 million years ago, predating dinosaurs by 280 million years. What is most remarkable about the "Wuan biota" fossils is their exceptional state of preservation. Unlike most fossils which only retain hard parts (shells, bones), these fossils preserved soft tissues like gills, intestines, and even elements of the nervous system, due to unique sedimentation conditions. This offers an unprecedented "HD photograph" of an entire marine ecosystem. These organisms also survived one of Earth's earliest known mass extinctions around 513 million years ago, caused by a significant drop in oceanic oxygen. The Wuan site, being in deep water, provided a refuge for life, and these organisms likely repopulated the oceans. The fossils include trilobites, arthropods, jellyfish-like creatures, and sponges. Some species were also found in Canada, suggesting ancient larval dispersal across oceans. The Cambrian period, when these creatures lived, saw the emergence of nearly all major animal body plans, including ancestors of modern arthropods, vertebrates, and mollusks. The host concludes by musing that within these 8,600 fossils, there may be very distant ancestors of humanity. The host reiterates his request for listener feedback on which topics they enjoy most, to help him tailor future content.