Trump is LOSING IT | Mad Dog on Iran!

The transcript discusses the escalating tensions surrounding Iran and Donald Trump's potential actions, with various perspectives on the situation and possible outcomes. Donald Trump is described using strong language, with one White House official disagreeing with the characterization of him as a "bloodthirsty mad dog." However, other officials are quoted as saying that figures like Pete Hegsth and Marco Rubio sound like "doves" compared to the President. The current day is being referred to as "infrastructure day" by Donald Trump, but not in the context of rebuilding. Instead, the focus is on destroying infrastructure in Iran. Israel has already initiated strikes, and Donald Trump has also taken action, with multiple strikes targeting bridges used by the IRGC. Iranians have been warned not to use the railway system due to a recent strike on a railway bridge. Additionally, 50 sites on Car Island have been struck, leading to speculation about seizing oil there, though it's unclear if oil infrastructure was targeted. Tucker Carlson is presented as being highly critical of the situation, urging US officials and commanders to refuse any commands from Donald Trump, stating, "Now is the time to say no. Absolutely not." The transcript acknowledges the argument that commanders could reject illegal orders but suggests this is unlikely to happen, especially as Donald Trump is perceived to have boosted military morale, particularly after a "behind enemy lines rescue." Despite this, Marjorie Taylor Greene has called for the invocation of the 25th Amendment, deeming Donald Trump unfit for office. She argues against destroying an entire civilization based on his "whims," calling it "evil" and "madness." This reaction stems from Donald Trump's statement on Truth Social that "A whole civilization will die tonight if a deal isn't made," adding, "I don't want it to happen, but it probably will." This latter comment has increased nervousness, leading Bahrain to issue a shelter-in-place order for Americans and India to advise its nationals in Iran to avoid certain installations. The transcript notes that JD Vance is attempting to project confidence in Iran's positive response, but this contradicts reports from Iran. The Wall Street Journal, citing three Iranian officials, states that Iran has officially cut off direct diplomacy with the US as a signal of disapproval for attempts to force a deal. While mediators like Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are still involved, progress is not evident. Another senior Iranian official told Reuters that there are "no negotiations going on with the United States," emphasizing that the US wants Iran to surrender under pressure and needs to be flexible to gain flexibility. Threats are made that if Iran's power plants are struck, Saudi Arabia's power plants will be targeted, plunging the country into darkness. Allies of Iran may also close the Bab Al-Mandeb waterway if the situation escalates. Iran asserts it will not yield to empty promises, with some suggesting that Iran's ideological stance makes them unafraid of death, potentially strengthening them. This contrasts with Donald Trump's perceived view of Iranians as being more fearful. Qatar has called for restraint, warning of an "uncontrollable point" if escalation occurs. A piece from Citrini Research, discussed on CNBC, suggests that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz might not be as dire as perceived, with ships reportedly turning off transponders and navigating through. Economic data is also touched upon, with ADP reporting 15,250 jobs per week, indicating a resilient underlying economy, despite an anticipated significant inflation report. The transcript mentions a forecast for a "bleed on the cues" (likely referring to a stock market index) until news regarding Donald Trump emerges. The speaker then outlines their personal scenarios for the upcoming deadline: * **15% chance:** Worst-case scenario, with Donald Trump bombing everything. This implies failed negotiations, a prolonged war, and elevated energy prices, considered broadly negative. * **50% chance:** Some form of extension due to progress in talks. This is framed as a "taco Tuesday" scenario, where Donald Trump claims proximity to a resolution and requests more time, which would be temporarily bullish. However, the transcript notes that some White House and Defense Administration officials believe Donald Trump is serious this time, suggesting this "taco" scenario might not be as likely as in the past. * **25% chance:** A combination of an extension ("taco") and more strikes. This would involve missing the deadline, followed by further strikes on infrastructure, and then an offer of another week for negotiations. This is seen as neutral to slightly bearish, indicating a continuing conflict. * **10% chance:** An actual outright deal, which would be the ultimate bullish scenario. The speaker emphasizes that these are their personal opinions, distinct from analyses by Wall Street professionals. Bloomberg and Wall Street scenarios are then presented: * **Low probability of a ceasefire:** This aligns with the speaker's 10% chance of a deal. * **Medium chance of threat delay:** This corresponds to the speaker's 50% chance of an extension. * **High chance of more air strikes:** This is higher than the speaker's 25% estimate for combined strikes and delay. * **Low probability of troops on the ground:** This is agreed upon, especially considering the challenges posed by man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) which could lead to aircraft losses and casualties, something Donald Trump is likely trying to avoid. The focus seems to be on targeting civilian infrastructure. Axios is cited as suggesting that Donald Trump might hold off if a deal appears imminent, but the decision rests with him. The speaker believes Donald Trump is escalating rhetoric to squeeze a last-minute deal and claim victory through his "chaos theory." The strong inclination is towards a "taco" (delay) on the deadline day, with the consequence of not getting one being a prolonged conflict. Market updates are provided, showing the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4.38%, the 2-year yield at 3.88%, and oil prices at $116 for WTI and $110 for Brent. Tesla is noted as a poor performer, breaking through the $347 support level, with $318 seen as the next potential target. The overall market is described as selling off with volatility over 26, presenting a "discount and sale on stocks." The segment concludes with a call to subscribe for more analysis and a brief interaction with another individual.