วิเคราะห์ ‘เอกนัฏ’ ทุบราคาโรงกลั่น โปะหนี้กองทุนน้ำมัน หน้าปั๊มลงกี่บาท | Morning Wealth 24 เม.ย. 69

This broadcast of Morning Well on April 24, 2026, covered several key topics, including organizational restructuring in tech companies, energy pricing policies in Thailand, geopolitical developments, and economic strategies in Japan. The show began by noting the impact of organizational restructuring at major tech companies like Teex Group, Meta, and Microsoft. Approximately 23,000 positions are affected globally due to voluntary resignations, reflecting adjustments in line with AI advancements and economic shifts. A significant portion of the discussion focused on Thailand's energy sector. The Ministry of Energy resolved to lower the ex-refinery price of diesel fuel by 5 baht per liter, effective immediately until May 9th, with a further reduction of 3 baht per liter planned until May 19th. This measure aims to reduce public energy costs and stabilize the energy sector. The decision was made following a review of refinery figures, which showed average refining prices over 14 baht, including additional costs like insurance and shipping. The committee sought to eliminate excess profits from refineries to determine a fair price. The government estimates that reducing the difference in refining costs will free up nearly 10 billion baht to be used for price discounts at refineries and to lower retail prices at gas stations. However, the retail price reduction at gas stations is not guaranteed to mirror the refinery price cut due to fluctuating global oil prices, particularly in Singapore. The Energy Minister, Mr. Ekkanat, acknowledged that the power he is wielding to set prices below the Singapore benchmark is due to an unusual situation under an emergency decree. He emphasized the need for a complete overhaul of the Oil Fund's mechanisms and the oil pricing system once the current emergency powers expire. The Oil Fund currently carries a debt of approximately 60 billion baht, and the minister aims to manage this debt to avoid future borrowing using the Ministry of Finance as collateral. The goal is to reduce the fund's daily losses, which are currently around 100 million baht, and enable debt repayment. The minister views the refinery price reduction as a direct contribution from refineries towards debt repayment. He also revealed that in March, 700 million liters of refined oil products were removed from stock to profit from Oil Fund subsidies, and the Ministry of Energy is investigating these actions to reclaim unfair profits. Regarding electricity costs, the Minister of Energy aims to address the "adder" or additional purchase price for electricity from private producers, which currently binds the state to expensive, long-term contracts. The plan is to transition these contracts to a "Fit in Tarif" (FIT) model, ensuring prices are no higher than solar power. The government is also accelerating policies related to solar energy, including network systems, billing, and loan policies, with proposals due by June. This initiative seeks to attract new industries reliant on clean energy, such as data centers, by creating a system where these industries bear the costs of clean energy production, thus maintaining stable electricity prices for the general public. The ministry is pushing for a Direct Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) mechanism to allow industries to directly purchase clean electricity, with surplus energy sold back to support the grid. This move is expected to attract foreign investment and pave the way for a free electricity trading market. The discussion also touched on geopolitical issues, specifically the proposed toll collection in the Strait of Malacca by Indonesia, inspired by Iran's consideration of a similar fee for the Strait of Hormuz. Indonesia's finance minister proposed this to create a new source of state income and elevate Indonesia's role in the global economy. However, Singapore and Malaysia have strongly objected, citing the principle of freedom of navigation under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This strait is a crucial shipping lane, with over 100,000 ships passing through annually, carrying 80% of China's oil exports. Concerns were raised that successful toll collection in these straits could set a precedent for other disputed areas, such as the South China Sea. Japan's economic stimulus measures were also analyzed, focusing on Sanaekka Kataichi's "Saeknomics" policy, which aims to revive the Japanese economy and combat deflation. This policy emphasizes bold government spending and investment, particularly in strategic industries like semiconductors, digital technology, and safety ships. It also includes short-term tax reductions on energy and electricity subsidies. Saeknomics differs from former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" by shifting the central bank's role from a primary player in aggressive monetary policy to a supporter of government initiatives, allowing gradual interest rate increases. The policy prioritizes avoiding tax hikes and premature interest rate increases that could harm the economy. Unlike Abenomics, which focused on broad money injection, Saeknomics targets specific growth industries. The long-term challenge for Saeknomics will be its execution and ability to change the Japanese public's ingrained habits of thriftiness and private sector savings, ultimately stimulating consumption and investment. The broadcast also addressed a trend of major technology companies, including Meta and Microsoft, reducing their workforces. Meta plans to cut 10% of its workforce (approximately 8,000 people) by May 20th, and Microsoft is offering voluntary leave packages to thousands of U.S. employees. These actions reflect tech companies' efforts to control expenses after significant investments in data centers and AI infrastructure to meet rapidly increasing demand. Open AI, a key player in AI development, recently launched its latest AI model, GPT 5.5, which boasts improved writing and computer code generation capabilities. This rapid development highlights the intense competition in the AI industry, with Open AI striving to compete with rivals like Google and Antropic. Finally, the program discussed the ongoing situation between Israel and Lebanon, with Donald Trump announcing a three-week extension of the ceasefire to facilitate negotiations between the United States and Iran. This move aims to pave the way for long-term agreements to end the conflict. However, both Israeli and Iranian leaders have made statements that suggest different interpretations of the ceasefire's scope and implications. The volatility of the situation has impacted global markets, with stock indices showing slight declines and energy prices beginning to rise. Trump's recent order for the U.S. fleet to intervene against any ships attempting to lay bombs in the Strait of Hormuz further underscores the tension. The broadcast concluded with an economic analysis of the refinery price cuts in Thailand. Experts noted that while the government's intervention aims to help the public, it raises concerns for foreign investors about business principles and potential lawsuits. The analyst suggested that the GRM (Gross Refining Margin) might have passed its peak, making investment in the refinery sector more challenging. For those without existing investments, it might be prudent to sell existing energy stocks for profit due to market volatility and government intervention risks. Investing in oil or agricultural mutual funds was suggested as a safer alternative for those seeking exposure to the energy sector.