Gold et Commodities: explosion imminente...

This week marks a significant turning point in the financial markets, characterized by a major resurgence in commodities and a potential vertical acceleration in the price of gold. The current market behavior suggests an "accelerating turn" that could define the trajectory of the next few years. **Commodities and the Inflationary Cycle** The commodity index is showing a significant upward move, signaling the potential release of a major impulsive wave. Historically, commodity cycles are known for extreme volatility; once a trend begins, it tends to move with great intensity. The current breakout follows a four-year period of digestion and volatility contraction that succeeded the post-Covid inflationary surge and the normalization of interest rates. This suggests the market is at the beginning of a new directional move that could persist for several months or even quarters. **Gold’s Potential "Hyper-Parabolic" Phase** Gold is currently breaking out of a very brief consolidation period within what is described as a "hyper-parabolic" movement. If gold achieves new historical highs within the next two to three weeks, it could enter a vertical acceleration phase similar to the market action seen in 1979. This trajectory points toward a potential market peak in 2026, characterized by staggering prices that will likely dominate financial headlines. Such a move would be associated with intense market stress, high volatility, and potential geopolitical tensions. The analysis highlights that the "staircase" steps—or consolidation periods—are becoming shorter in duration. This pattern of increasingly rapid consolidations is a hallmark of verticalization. This outlook applies to gold whether it is priced in US Dollars or Euros, with both charts showing broken pivots and the potential for a new rally through March and April. **Cryptocurrency Cycles and the "Tennis Ball" Analogy** In contrast to the bullishness in metals, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a bear market following the breach of a key support level. To explain these cycles, the speaker uses a gravity-based "tennis ball" analogy: a ball is thrown upward, reaches its peak (the 2025 high), hits the "ceiling" where gravity stops it, and then begins its descent. Bitcoin is currently in this downward phase, which is expected to involve high volatility and deep retracements. XRP follows a similar logic, currently retracing toward the bottom of a massive, long-term chart triangle. Despite this downward leg, XRP is viewed as an asset with significant "positive asymmetry"—meaning the potential reward far outweighs the risk. A small portfolio allocation of 0.5% to 1% is suggested for this long-term play. Ethereum is also navigating a large multi-year triangle and is currently testing a support level. **Blockchain Stocks and the BLOCK ETF** The "BLOCK" ETF, which tracks companies associated with the blockchain sector rather than direct cryptocurrencies, remains within a long-term bullish channel. It has been retracing since October and may be reaching a local bottom. The expectation is for a consolidation period that could last throughout 2026. A future breakout in these stocks might eventually coincide with the ultimate bottom of the Bitcoin bear market. **The All-Weather Impulsion Strategy** The speaker provides an update on the "All-Weather Impulsion" portfolio, a strategy designed to capitalize on market asymmetries. While commodities were recently removed from the unleveraged version of this strategy to prioritize the historical outperformance of stocks, they are maintained in the speaker’s personal leveraged accounts. The portfolio performance data is as follows: * **February:** +4.19% * **January:** +9.08% * **Year-to-Date:** +13.65% * **Since Launch (May 1, 2025):** +42.55% The strategy emphasizes waiting for high-quality setups rather than frequent, aggressive trading. It aims for an average annual return of approximately 20% with a maximum historical monthly drawdown of around -11% to -12%. **Silver and Equity Markets** Silver appears to have found a bottom and is beginning to rebound. While the duration of its current consolidation is uncertain, it is viewed as a minor pause within a more intense long-term bullish cycle. Regarding Western equity markets, the S&P 500 has experienced seven weeks of stabilization, forming a "double bottom" with very compact volatility. This lateral "staircase" has been in place since December, serving to digest the gains made since the "Trump tariff crisis." Low volatility during these periods is typical of healthy bull markets. The NASDAQ is in a nearly identical position, lateralizing since November. A breakout above current pivots would signal a return to extreme optimism across short, medium, and long-term horizons. In Europe, the CAC 40 has seen four weeks of growth, shifting from a range-bound market to an impulsive wave. The DAX has similarly extracted itself from a multi-month consolidation and is trending toward the top of its weekly channel. **Personal Professional Update** The speaker concludes by noting a change in professional plans. The project to create a formal hedge fund has been set aside due to "absolutely staggering" regulatory constraints. Instead, the focus will remain on personal portfolio management and sharing the "All-Weather Impulsion" strategy with followers. A personal "side project" involving higher leverage is also being developed to push performance boundaries further, with more details to be shared in future conferences. Arbitrage for the coming month will be executed at the next US market opening.