"Iran's NOT Going To CAVE" - War Expert REVEALS Why Iran's Regime Will NEVER Surrender

The speaker discusses past predictions regarding international conflicts, noting that Russia's attack on Ukraine and the US/Israel attack on Iran did not unfold as quickly or destructively as anticipated. He highlights his advisory roles, including with Ron Paul and during Obama's 2008 campaign, emphasizing his consistent engagement with political figures across the spectrum, including the Trump administration. He recounts his involvement in the lead-up to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). In February 2008, while on Obama's primary team, he identified Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon as Obama's biggest foreign policy challenge. He proposed that to exert real pressure on Iran, Russia's involvement was crucial. His idea, conveyed through a colleague on the NATO team, was to trade away national missile defense in Eastern Europe, a system he considered ineffective, in exchange for Russia's cooperation. This strategy was adopted by Obama in 2010, ultimately leading to the JCPOA in 2015. He asserts the deal's success stemmed from Russia and China's participation, not solely from the brilliance of Western diplomats. The speaker, a professor at the University of Chicago, prefers to analyze and propose solutions rather than seek political office, believing many in Washington self-destruct. He points to Brent Scowcroft and Jim Baker as examples of successful West Wing figures, contrasting them with those whose reputations suffered after taking on high-profile roles like Colin Powell as Secretary of State. He then delves into his research, particularly on the ineffectiveness of bombing civilian populations and economic infrastructure to break an enemy's will, a core finding from his analysis of 30 major air campaigns. He explains that the belief that punishment works is a "smart person's mistake," not a foolish one, prevalent even among highly intelligent individuals and military leaders. His extensive engagement with diverse groups, including Ron Paul's supporters, reinforces his understanding of this widespread misconception. He argues that punishment strategies consistently fail, using the analogy of a bully on a playground. Once an adversary perceives a willingness to inflict pain, they anticipate endless future demands and threats, leading them to resist rather than concede. He illustrates this with a personal anecdote about confronting a bully in fourth grade, resulting in the bully leaving him alone. This resistance, he explains, is rooted in human nature, where a significant portion of any population will choose to fight when threatened, even if others might flee or freeze. He concludes that trying to punish a regime like Iran will only harden their resolve, leading to a continuous cycle of escalating conflict rather than capitulation. The fundamental problem, he reiterates, is the belief that sufficient punishment will make them cave, a belief that is demonstrably false.