S&P500 nouvel ATH, Bitcoin va suivre ?

The speaker opens the show on April 16, 2026, noting Bitcoin is around $75,000, but the main action is with the S&P 500, which closed at an all-time high above 7000 points. A significant but underreported event in French finance is the U.S. tax deadline on April 15, 2026, which often brings volatility. This period, from mid-April to mid-May, aligns with the "sell in May and go away" adage. The S&P 500 has achieved its typical annual performance in just three weeks. The media platform, now "Falils," has evolved, with the speaker (CM) continuing to host the show, which will likely become a weekly recap instead of daily. New content formats are planned, including a series on wealth and pensions, following popular videos on boomers and housing. Sacha will now manage the X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram accounts, as well as YouTube shorts, aiming to provide deeper content beyond just news sharing. Technically, the S&P 500's 11% gain in three weeks is significant, comparable to the 12% rebound in April 2025 during the "Trump crack." This rapid recovery, especially given recent geopolitical tensions, is surprising. The speaker advises long-term, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to avoid "FOMO" (fear of missing out) and mitigate risks, investing consistently regardless of market fluctuations. U.S. M2SL money supply is expanding, possibly in anticipation of Kevin Arch succeeding Jerome Powell at the Fed, which could be contributing to Wall Street's optimism. The NASDAQ also closed at an all-time high of 26204, with MACD just crossing above the neutral zone, similar to the S&P 500, suggesting the correction might be over. However, ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, could have long-term implications for commodities like oil. European indices are also performing well, though less robustly than the U.S. The DAX is near its 50 and 20-day moving averages. The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is weakening, trading in a micro-range between 96 and 100. Long-term interest rates are slightly receding, with the 20-year at 4.87% and the 30-year at 4.90%. The Euro Stoxx and CAC 40 are progressing, but more modestly. The VIX has returned to a neutral zone of 18, indicating no immediate market panic. The speaker recalls extreme fear in mid-March, which didn't lead to the anticipated -15%, -20%, or -30% crash. This reinforces the strategy of investing over time to counter human biases. Gold is at $4833, and Silver at $80 an ounce, with institutional targets of $5500 for gold and $90-95 for silver within a year. The total crypto market cap is forming a double bottom around $2.5 trillion, with RSI between 40 and 43, and MACD showing its first positive histogram this week. Altcoins (Cryptotal 2) are still more degraded. Stablecoin distribution (USDC, USDT) shows a descending double top, inverse to the total crypto market. Bitcoin is at $75,000, needing to break above $77,000-78,000 to target $83,000-84,000, then $88,000 (100-day moving average) and $97,000 (50-day moving average), potentially reaching $100,000. This spring could see an interesting play area if the S&P 500 doesn't reverse. The American market's sudden disregard for global implications of Iran/Hormuz is perplexing. Ethereum is at $2360, near the confluence of its 200 and 20-day moving averages around $2400. It could push to $2800, with the 100-day moving average at $2950 and 50-day at $3100. A break above $5000 (previous ATH) would signal a true bullish acceleration, with potential Fibonacci projections between $7000 and $11,000-11,500 in this cycle, or $7500-10,000 in the next. The speaker views Bitcoin as the "minimal risk" in crypto, despite its high-risk classification. Ethereum's complex roadmap is hoped to continue its positive development. Coinbase is up 6% to $196, forming a double bottom around its 200-day moving average. It needs to break $210 to rally towards $240-270. MicroStrategy is at $144, near its 20-day moving average, needing to surpass $183 to reverse its trend. Circle is performing well at $105-106, while other miners like Wolf, Riot, Hut, and Marathon are struggling. The speaker discusses personal investments, noting he is gradually buying into the market, finding more pleasure in discounted traditional stocks like Robinhood, Tesla, Microsoft, and Take-Two. Robinhood, with yesterday's +10%, is among his best short-term performers alongside Netflix. He also invested in an MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) for diversification. He reflects that when one starts to be happy with investment performance, especially in traditional markets (e.g., +5% to +25% gains), it might be time to take profits. Compared to crypto, where multi-thousand percent gains and subsequent massive losses were common, traditional markets offer a more "boring" but stable approach. Crypto investors, hardened by extreme volatility, are less fazed by -5% or -10% dips in traditional stocks. Microsoft has worked around its 200-day moving average, with support at $350 and oscillators turning around. Netflix returned to its 0.5 Fibonacci level at $75, now at $107-108, contacting its 50-day moving average. The platform's goal is to foster community interaction. The speaker notes that former collaborators, Marc and Manu, are pursuing their own paths, with Marc having explained his reasons for distancing himself from the French community. The speaker laments the difficulty of recreating the strong community bond seen in 2020-2021, as the crypto market matures and original participants age. Regarding French stocks, finding strong candidates is challenging. Hermes and Kering are struggling, with Hermes defending its €1650 support but deeply wicking to €1527. The luxury sector, including LVMH, faces difficulties, partly due to the euro-dollar exchange rate. In altcoins, Pepe is showing signs of a potential reversal, though the speaker warns about the high risk of memecoins. Injective is on support, but its degradation against the dollar makes it a difficult entry. Aave (AAV) is highlighted as a fundamentally important project that could make history, representing a "make or break" risk in portfolios. Hyperliquid is at $45, potentially reaching its ATH of $50-60 in a future bull run, but current volumes suggest a corrective phase might follow this summer. The speaker questions whether the current S&P 500 rally is sustainable, especially given global economic headwinds like stagflation and declining consumer confidence. However, he acknowledges that markets often do the opposite of what is expected when sentiment is depressed. Asian markets: Tencent is reacting around its 100-day moving average. Xiaomi is in a descending parallel channel. Nintendo is struggling around its 200-day moving average with high trading volumes. The Topix follows the U.S. mood, at 3815, near its ATH of 3935. The speaker wonders if this rally will last or if it's a "flash in the pan." He concludes by stating that 2026 will likely be full of surprises, with political shifts and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While challenging for speculators, it keeps the market engaging. He anticipates a positive week for traditional markets, but crypto is lagging. Bitcoin, currently at $75,000, should ideally be between $85,000 and $100,000 given the U.S. market performance. He advises caution for 2026, suggesting a potential market low around autumn, hoping for geopolitical de-escalation over the summer before the U.S. midterms in November 2026.