Euphorie totale sur la Tech US 🇺🇸 +10,000 milliards en 1 mois. (Les Archives de l'Architecte EP5)

The US market experienced a significant surge, with the S&P 500 reaching 7400 points, adding over 10 trillion dollars in just one month, marking a 17% increase. This episode, the fifth installment of the financial news summary, highlights the dominant theme of American tech, particularly in AI, infrastructure, GPUs, data centers, and cloud computing. US markets remain strong, especially the Nasdaq and semiconductors, with this trend also pushing forcefully into Asia. Investors are returning to risk, exhibiting a somewhat euphoric sentiment, and social media discussions are heavily focused on tech stocks and the stock market rather than cryptocurrencies. The market is distinguishing between companies with strong results, often among the "super seven" but also including SK Hynix, Micron, and Intel, whose semiconductor-related stocks are rising rapidly. However, caution is advised against false narratives, as the market is adept at discerning true value. The US economy is proving more resilient than expected, with reassuring employment figures and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious and neutral, notably with Kevin Warsh's nomination to succeed Jerome Powell. Inflation, however, is re-emerging as a concern due to an energy shock in oil prices. The upcoming CPI report, coupled with oil prices, could significantly impact markets, which are already in a "turbulent euphoric" zone. Geopolitically, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a primary concern, influencing oil prices. Above $100 a barrel is catastrophic, while below allows for breathing room, which has been observed recently. Gold continues to serve as an anti-inflationary and anti-geopolitical hedge. Any escalation in conflict could reignite inflation and volatility, already present in tech but not necessarily in other markets, with energy commodities being the first affected. Big Tech companies continue to invest and post exceptional results with solid projections, which the markets are rewarding. This has led to an unprecedented concentration, comparable to the dot-com bubble. Capital expenditures in AI infrastructure are exploding. For example, Micron has entirely shifted its focus from consumer RAM to highly specific, technical AI memory for data centers, concentrating all its industry efforts on this area. This "race to the top" involves astronomical spending and stocks soaring like "baobabs to the sky." However, history shows that markets do not only go up. Semiconductors are at the heart of this bullish momentum. A critical point of attention is the lack of margin for error; any disappointing quarterly result could be amplified. The market demands real and sustainable growth, and small disappointments will now be greatly exaggerated. Bitcoin is advancing at its own pace, behaving like a macro tech asset but lagging behind the broader tech sector. For crypto enthusiasts, only AI and semiconductors are currently attracting all major capital flows. This sustained trend has even stabilized gold, which itself is in a mega bull run. We are likely at an inflection point, also at the cusp of summer, evoking the stock market adage "sell in May and go away." While this wasn't true for crypto in 2025, with the stock market hitting all-time highs and adding 10 trillion dollars in a month (four times the entire crypto market), a summer consolidation seems plausible. Ethereum remains weaker relative to Bitcoin, and institutional flows continue to concentrate on BTC. Next week's key events include US CPI and PPI inflation, the evolution of the Iran-US conflict and oil prices, the continuation of the tech AI momentum, and the reaction of long-term US bond yields, which remain above 5% for 20- and 30-year bonds. Possible consolidation is a concern if markets deem valuations too stretched. While some see further appreciation potential for US tech before a true "bubble burst," others believe we are already in an "ultra-scarlet zone" that could lead to a catastrophic event if quarterly results disappoint or if inflation accelerates in the real economy. There are two distinct economies: the future economy of AI and technological revolution, and the real economy of everyday life, which may experience friction and inflation impacting growth and consumption in the coming quarters. Intel's chart shows a vertical surge from $20-30 to $126. US oil is below $95 a barrel, and UK oil is around $100. A weakened dollar is supporting the S&P 500, which closed just under 7400 points (7398 precisely), an appreciation of 17% in just six weeks. American tech is even more exacerbated, with a 28% gain in six weeks. Since 2020, it has been beneficial to remain fully exposed to the market, as those awaiting a mega-crash have missed out on incredibly strong years, excluding the marked bear market of 2022. In 2022, the Nasdaq retreated 38%, offering opportunities to acquire stocks like Nvidia at generational lows before the current rally. The progression of American tech is meeting expectations and hopes, which hopefully will not be dashed soon, otherwise a sharp decline could follow. Gold stabilizes at $4715 an ounce, not far from its all-time high. The total crypto market cap is $2660 billion, having crossed $2600 billion. While $2900 or even $3150 (50-week moving average) is a target, conviction, flows, and volume are lacking. The 10 trillion dollars flowing into American tech in a month means less capital for crypto. Bitcoin hesitated at the $83,000 resistance. Some see this as the start of a rally to $100,000 (with a 50-week MA at $95,000), while others interpret a daily bear flag similar to late 2025/early 2026. If Bitcoin struggles at $95,000, like in 2022, it will determine if we re-enter a bullish momentum or head towards a bottom between $35,000 and $60,000 by late 2026. DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) makes sense for long-term BTC holders. Ethereum struggles to cross its 200-day moving average at $2450, lacking strength compared to Bitcoin and still overlooked by institutional investors. While hope exists for a shift in 3-4 years, Bitcoin remains the choice for risk-averse investors, despite being a volatile and risky asset. IREN, a mining company, surged almost 8% to near its ATH of $61 on the Nasdaq, likely due to a pivot towards AI computing power. From $5 in April 2025 to $61 today, this highlights the strong performance in tech compared to altcoins, which have seen no significant gains in 1-2 years. Coinbase hovers around $200, while Circle saw a slight pullback after its strong run last week