Bitcoin monte et personne ne veut y croire - La Météo des Marchés

Gabriel is back after a two-week break, noting the historical highs reached by the NASDAQ and S&P 500. However, he emphasizes that not all stocks performed well, with a significant focus on artificial intelligence, RAM shortages, and semiconductors driving the market. Other sectors were left behind. A key event to watch is Tuesday's CPI (Consumer Price Index) announcement, which is expected to bring volatility. Gabriel plans to share his insights on this later. The third main topic is Bitcoin, for which Gabriel believes a bottom has been established. He's observed signs for weeks, but the process has been slow and met with disbelief, with many expecting a bottom only in October. He finds the current charts to be quite clear. Monday’s trading action is described as "fuckery," requiring more information to predict the week's direction. Currently, Friday's momentum seems to be carrying AI-related stocks like Micron Technology and AMD. Intel is also mentioned, with a caution against vertical accelerations, as buying into such moves when FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is high can lead to being trapped. He advises that if entering a trade during an acceleration, the market should ideally continue higher, allowing for a quick stop-loss to be moved to profit to avoid sharp reversals. The CPI data is highlighted as a three-star event. The inflation rate is anticipated to be higher than the previous reading. If energy prices haven't been factored in and inflation is significantly elevated, a sharp market reaction ("mèche") is expected. This is attributed to potential FOMO, where late entrants could be caught by stop-outs. He recalls similar volatility in late April/early May. For those with tight stop-losses, caution is advised. However, for proprietary traders, a significant dip followed by a stabilization and quick recovery, especially at the end of a session, is seen as a buying opportunity in a strong bullish market. He notes that reversing a strong bullish trend takes time and more hesitation. Regarding Bitcoin, Gabriel reiterates his belief in a bottom, despite some influencers' skepticism. He points to a W bottom on the weekly chart, trend reversals across timeframes, and daily indicators showing positive signs. Bitcoin is currently testing the 200-day moving average. He observes that current sentiment is low, and the trend is slow and not "sexy" compared to the rapid gains in tech stocks. This lack of excitement, coupled with low open interest, suggests a rally driven by spot buying rather than leveraged long positions, which are being actively managed out of the market. He also touches upon MicroStrategy, suggesting it might be a better play than Bitcoin in the short to medium term due to its strong upward trend and weakening dips, further supporting the thesis of Bitcoin having bottomed. He mentions that the rally in Bitcoin miners like Hut 8 has been ongoing for weeks, indicating that the strength is already reflected in related assets, not just in sentiment. Finally, Gabriel promotes Alpha Team's services, which include trading education, tools like the trading journal and Alpha Terminal, and mindset coaching, all aimed at helping traders and investors improve their strategies and capital protection. He also mentions their Substack newsletter, "Les Carnets du Trader Alpha Team," offering contrarian plays and mindset lessons.