IMF-World Bank หั่น GDP ไทย ต่ำสุดอาเซียน เซ่นพิษสงครามตะวันออกกลาง | THE STANDARD WEALTH

Name: IMF-World Bank หั่น GDP ไทย ต่ำสุดอาเซียน เซ่นพิษสงครามตะวันออกกลาง | THE STANDARD WEALTH
Uploaded: 2026-04-16T07:06:27.302Z
Description: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its economic growth forecast for Thailand this year to 1.5%, a slight decrease from the previously projected 1.6%. This downward adjustment is pa

THE STANDARD WEALTH·Apr 16, 2026

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its economic growth forecast for Thailand this year to 1.5%, a slight decrease from the previously projected 1.6%. This downward adjustment is part of a broader global trend, with the IMF also lowering its worldwide economic growth forecast to 3.1%. The situation in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices are identified as significant factors contributing to this economic slowdown. The IMF's estimate for Thailand's growth is now the lowest within the ASEAN region, reflecting a considerable slowdown compared to the 2.4% growth experienced last year. For next year, the IMF forecasts a modest recovery for Thailand, with growth projected to reach 2.1%, down from an earlier estimate of 2.2%. These forecasts are based on the assumption that the current Middle East conflict will be short-lived and its impact limited. In terms of energy commodities, the IMF anticipates a moderate upward adjustment in prices this year, with an average oil price of $80 USD. They expect energy prices to gradually decrease in the latter half of the year and potentially into the next. Inflation is projected to be around 4.4% this year before declining next year. The World Bank, in a separate forecast released on April 8th, projects an even lower GDP growth rate for Thailand this year at 1.3%, a significant revision from its previous forecast of 2%. The World Bank anticipates a slight recovery to 2.3% or 3% next year. Both institutions cite external factors, including high oil prices, as major contributors to the slowdown. Additionally, internal structural issues within Thailand, such as teacher debt and tight credit conditions, are mentioned as exacerbating the economic challenges. The tourism sector's recovery is also noted as being delayed. The report emphasizes Thailand's sensitivity to oil price fluctuations due to its high import reliance. Fiscal constraints are also highlighted as a contributing factor.