Guess What's Back? 🖨️ Who’s in Profit & Crazy Supply Grab 👀

In the last two weeks, and even just the last week, there have been massive reversals across many areas, bringing back optimism. The market often turns around when pessimism is at its peak. There's a significant warning for those using self-custody for crypto assets. A fake Ledger app on the App Store drained funds from 50 people, including a musician who lost their life savings. It's crucial to always go to the source, triple-verify everything, and test small amounts when dealing with cold storage, as there's no help desk for self-banked individuals. Scammers are becoming very sophisticated. Despite the crypto Fear and Greed Index remaining at "extreme fear" (21), Bitcoin is up 26% from its bottom. Altcoin season is still at 39, indicating it's currently Bitcoin season. Bitcoin has had a strong start to April, up 11% so far this month, following a modest 1.8% gain in March after five red months. Over the last week, Ethereum (ETH) was up 6.3%, outperforming Bitcoin, which gained 10%. Solana (SOL) also saw increases. A significant amount of money, $1.1 billion, flowed into global crypto ETFs last week, marking the largest weekly inflow in over three and a half months. This rebound in risk appetite is attributed to tentative ceasefire developments in the Middle East and softer-than-expected US spending and CPI data. Bitcoin year-to-date flows are just under $2 billion, with $872 million coming in last week. Ethereum saw $196 million in inflows, XRP $19 million, and Chainlink $1.3 million. Short Bitcoin ETFs saw $20 million, indicating some hedging. However, ETF timing can be tricky; on April 13th, $291 million flowed out before Bitcoin's rally. But on-chain data shows IBIT and Michael Saylor's STRC are buying heavily. Morgan Stanley's MSBT fund has also seen consistent inflows, now positive with $67 million in just four days. James Czech's Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index suggests a positive outlook, indicating that the bottom might be in for Bitcoin. Historically, when the index is in the deep green zone, a significant bounce follows. This implies the fastest-ever dip and recovery for Bitcoin, highlighting that "everything is different this time." Tether's market cap is ticking up again, erasing earlier negativity and signaling that money is flowing back into the system. This, combined with ETF flows, is a bullish sign. Bullish regulatory news includes a proposed US bill to make stablecoin transactions tax-free. Previously, the IRS treated stablecoin transactions like stock sales. This change is positive for stablecoins, with rumors that the Clarity Act, which big banks tried to torpedo, could also be close to approval. The average cost basis for US Bitcoin ETF buyers since inception is $74,200, meaning they are now, on average, in profit. This is a positive indicator, as investors are less likely to sell when they are profitable. Solana (SOL) ETF flows also showed a big green spike, with rumors of X payments from Twitter potentially coming to Solana. ETH weekly flows were up $9.44 million. Looking at the top 50 cryptos over the last seven days, Zcash was up 40%, Hype up 22%, and Toncoin up, along with ETH, Pepe, Bitcoin, Avalanche, and Soul. Losers included Sky Pi (Polkadot, due to a hack), Wolfie, and Tao, which took a 20% hit. In other good news for crypto, DeFi exchanges are no longer considered broker-dealers by the SEC. This means DeFi user interfaces, front-ends, wallet extensions, and mobile apps do not require SEC broker-dealer registration, allowing the "Wild West" to continue. CZ (Changpeng Zhao) has reportedly eclipsed Bill Gates as one of the richest men in America, highlighting a point about holding onto winning assets. Bill Gates' diversification efforts, including shorting Tesla, cost him billions, while an employee who held Microsoft stock is now richer. Switching to traditional stocks, the Fear and Greed Index flipped to neutral for the first time in five or six weeks, contrasting with crypto's extreme fear. The last seven days saw incredible gains in tech stocks: Nvidia up 12%, Micron 23%, AMD 17%, Broadcom 16%, Intel 21.5%, Amazon 18%, Meta 15%, Tesla 5.2%, Google 10%, and Microsoft 6%. MicroStrategy's portfolio is back in profit, silencing critics who mocked Michael Saylor's long-term Bitcoin investments. MicroStrategy and US Bitcoin ETFs have collectively purchased 166% of the next 120 years of Bitcoin supply, indicating a severe supply shortage if this consumption rate continues. One player, MicroStrategy, has purchased 140% of the new Bitcoin supply mined in 2026. Goldman Sachs is also entering the Bitcoin market, launching a Bitcoin income ETF, which will sell calls against their Bitcoin position to generate extra alpha. Tesla, previously oversold, has bounced back, gaining $24-25 in a week. FSD (Full Self-Driving) 14.3.1 is already shipping, showing rapid iteration. Robo-taxis have been accident-free since January and are preparing for large-scale deployment, having launched in the Netherlands. In the semiconductor industry, the market is projected to double to $1.6 trillion by 2030. More exciting is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of compute and data storage, which is projected at 55% per year through 2030, indicating significant future growth for companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. AI company Anthropic is growing at an astonishing rate, reportedly tripling revenue every quarter. At this pace, its revenue could surpass Google's in Q4 this year, Amazon's in Q1 next year, and the entire US federal government's in Q2-Q3. This exponential growth in demand for intelligence and compute suggests that AI is not a bubble, but a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Finally, Quantitative Easing (QE) is confirmed to be back, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet beginning to grow again in early 2026. This typically means hard assets will increase in value as more money circulates in the system.